With a new coach roaming the sideline, the Minnesota Timberwolves will look to see if Ryan Saunders’ influence can carry them to another victory when they host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The T-Wolves dominated the Thunder to get the 32-year-old his first career win under his belt and with another win can get back to the .500 mark. The Mavs, on the other hand, have been historically bad on the road at 3-18 SU in 21 games but covered the spread in 10 of those games.
The Timberwolves opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 222.
- The Mavericks are 3-18 SU in 21 road games this season.
- The T-Wolves are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games vs the Mavericks.
- The OVER has hit in 11 of the Timberwolves’ last 12 games (avg. combined score: 226.42).
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game Center
Mavs are Historically Bad on the Road
Dropping 11 of their last 12 road games, the Mavericks have become the go-to fade team when playing away from American Airlines Arena. Dallas averages five fewer points per game on the road and allows teams to shoot 46 percent from the field compared to 42 percent at home.
The Mavs have dropped four straight games in the Twin Cities with an average loss margin of 10 points per game but did beat the T-Wolves at home back in October. Dallas is expected to be short-handed in the backcourt tonight with Dennis Smith Jr. nursing a back injury and is 4-8 SU in 12 games when the point guard is out of the lineup.
The Mavericks have shown me nothing this season to believe they can travel to Minnesota and get the win but they have covered the spread in 10 of their 21 road games this season. Super rookie Luka Doncic’s stats also take a steep drop when he plays away from Dallas. For that reason, I can’t endorse a Mavericks spread bet even though they’ll be fun as hell to watch.
T-Wolves May Be Rejuvenated with New Coach
Ryan Saunders is the youngest coach in the NBA at 32 and is the son of longtime Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders. His rapport with the team has been well documented and in his first game as an NBA head coach, the T-Wolves balled out for him with Andrew Wiggins dropping 40 points in a 119-117 upset of the Thunder.
The turnover and drama for this franchise have been on full display this season with the Jimmy Butler saga and the firing of Tom Thibodeau. Some would argue that the first win they got could be attributed to emotion because of the Saunders lineage and that it isn’t replicable against the good teams in the NBA, but it’s not like Minnesota has scrubs on its team. In four games this month, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are combining to average 54.6 points per game and with Butler gone and being replaced by Robert Covington and Dario Saric, the Timberwolves now resemble a complete team.
The T-Wolves have fared well against Dallas as they’ve won five of the last six games in this matchup and four straight games when hosting the Mavs so I like their chances to win and cover this game.
Timberwolves Are the Hottest OVER Bet in the NBA
The total opened at 222 in this Western Conference matchup and totals bettors have been seeing a profit when the Timberwolves take the floor. The OVER has hit in 11 of the Timberwolves’ last 12 games with an average combined score of 226.4 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the T-Wolves to win and cover the spread. I’m rolling with good vibes coming out of Minnesota and given how poorly the Mavericks play on the road, this is a perfect spot to fade them. There are far too many warning signs from the Mavs this season to trust them on the road so until they start to win consistently away from Dallas, I’ll continue to bet against them.
