The Dallas Mavericks make their way to Chesapeake Energy Arena for the back half of a home-and-home series with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas edged Oklahoma City 105-103 yesterday for its fourth win in the last five between these two clubs. Five-time NBA all-star Paul George had a game-high 36 points for the Thunder and they are an 8-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 224 points.
- The total has gone OVER in six of Dallas’ last eight games.
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games.
- Oklahoma City is 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Dallas vs Oklahoma City Game Center
Thunder have been rolling at home recently
Oklahoma City returns home looking to get back in the win column after losing three of its last four games. The Thunder have one of the best home records this season at 12-4, including winning 11 of their last 13 at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Their offense has a slight uptick in front of their own fans as they average 113.9 points per game at home for the 11th-best mark in the league; on the season, they score 111.8 ppg, which remains 11th. Small forward Paul George is having a career year, scoring the team high in points in 22 of the 34 games he has played and averaging 26.6 points per game, which is 2.9 ppg better than his previous career high in 2016-17. Additionally, the 28-year-old is grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game, which is 0.7 boards above his previous career high in 2012-13.
Overall, OKC’s defense has played well this year, limiting its opponents to just 105.7 ppg to rank sixth in the Association, but that has risen to 107.3 this month, falling to 11th-best. Meanwhile, the Thunder are constantly pressuring their foes, creating the most turnovers per game in the NBA at 18.3, leading to 19.6 points off turnovers per game, fourth-best in the league. That’s notable because only three teams turn the ball over more times per game than the Mavericks. Lastly, the Thunder have the fourth-highest pace of play, which has led to them taking the most shots per game at 92.6.
Mavericks look to end the year on a winning streak
December has been an unkind month for Dallas, which had a stretch of six games in which it couldn’t find a victory, but after a slim home triumph last night, it has the ability to end 2018 on a two-game winning streak. The Mavs’ 2018 first-round pick, Luka Doncic, has scored the team high in points in three straight games and is their leading scorer on the season. The 19-year-old is averaging 19.6 points while grabbing 6.5 rebounds per game, the second-most on the team. Dallas is one of those teams that just hangs around in the middle of the league in a lot of different statistical categories. The Mavs score 110.9 points per game to rank 16th and give up 110.1 ppg, ranking 15th.
One area of concern for the Mavericks is they give up the second-most points per game to forwards, which is not good when you’re facing a guy like Paul George, who dropped 36 points yesterday. Additionally, they contest just 22.8 three-point attempts per game, which is the 10th-fewest in the NBA, but they allow the 15th-most attempts. Lastly, the Mavs are 0-12 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games in the second half of back-to-back games, with an average losing margin of 10.1.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Both teams got a good look at their opponents yesterday as they played to a combined score of 208 and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 224 points. Oklahoma City has had seven of its last 10 games go UNDER 224 points and three of its last four games in the second half of back-to-back games. However, Dallas has gone OVER 224 points in seven of its last eight games with its only UNDER coming yesterday against OKC, and five of its last six games in the back half of consecutive games have gone OVER. Lastly, only one of the last 12 meetings between these two teams has gone OVER 224 points, so I like the UNDER tonight.
My take on Dallas vs Oklahoma City
I like the UNDER 224 points. Only once in the last 12 meetings have these teams gone OVER 224 points and that came a year ago to the day. OKC and Dallas tipped off yesterday for a combined score of 208 and then both traveled to Oklahoma for tonight’s game so I expect both teams will feel the effects of back-to-back games. The Thunder have hosted each of their last four matches on the second of consecutive nights and three of those games went UNDER with them scoring an average of just 104.5 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs average just 103.83 ppg in the back half of their last six back-to-back games.
