Mavericks vs Suns Prediction & Odds: Phoenix Hosts Dallas To Open West Semifinal

The Phoenix Suns (68-20 SU, 48-40 ATS) were 3-0 SU this year against the Dallas Mavericks (56-32, 52-34-2), but Luka Doncic missed two of those games and the teams haven’t met in more than three months. The Suns opened as 6-point favorites in Game 1 over Dallas, which is playing its first second-round game in 11 years.

Mavericks vs Suns Odds & Analysis

Sportsbook Odds 

Phoenix was favored by 8 and 8.5 points when these teams met for consecutive games at Footprint Center in November, but Doncic was sidelined by injury for each of those contests. In the Suns’ last 30 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, they’ve gone 25-5 SU and 23-7 ATS.

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Dallas Went 5-1 ATS In Round 1 Despite Being Without Doncic For Three Games

Tonight marks the Mavericks’ first appearance in the second round in 11 years, and it’s also new ground for Doncic and several of Dallas’ other young players. It’ll be interesting to see if nerves become a factor now that the stakes are higher, although the Mavs didn’t look like a nervous bunch in their first-round victory over Utah.

Despite being without Doncic for half of the series, Dallas went 5-1 ATS in the last round against Utah with the lone non-cover missing by a half-point. The Mavs’ success shouldn’t come as a surprise to their backers, who have seen Dallas go 5-0 ATS in its last five road games and a sizzling 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 overall.

Doncic looks completely recovered from the calf strain that sidelined him for the first three games against Utah, averaging nearly 30 points and recording a pair of double-doubles in three outings since. Jalen Brunson carried the offense in Doncic’s absence but still averaged nearly 24 points a game after the Mavs’ superstar returned to the lineup, while Dallas’ defense held Utah to 100 points or less in four of the six games in Round 1.

Suns Survive First-Round Scare Against New Orleans, Including Injury To Booker

A week ago, the Suns appeared to be on the ropes in their first-round series against New Orleans, tied 2-2 and with top scorer Devin Booker sidelined by a hamstring strain. But Phoenix quickly found its footing, blowing out the Pelicans 112-97 in Game 5 and then getting Booker back in the lineup for its series-clinching 115-109 win over the Pels in Game 6.

Booker had just 13 points in the series finale but the encouraging part for Suns fans was that he played 32 minutes, exceeding the goal of 24 minutes that coach Monty Williams had set for his return. Chris Paul led the way offensively by going 14-for-14 from the field in a 33-point effort, setting an NBA playoff record for most makes in a game without a miss.

Closing out the Pelicans in Game 6 bought the Suns a few extra days to prepare for Round 2, which could be a big advantage for Phoenix. Under Williams, the Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when they’ve had three or more days’ rest. By comparison, Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six games with that much rest, something to keep in mind when making your Mavericks vs Suns prediction. 

Mavericks vs Suns Pick & Insights

Mavericks: Keys To Cover

Dallas proved in Round 1 that it’s more than a one-man team, and Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith are capable of doing some damage if Phoenix pays too much attention to Doncic. The Mavs are also consistently a tough out as a road underdog, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 in that situation.

Suns: Keys To Cover

Phoenix has excelled at shutting down Doncic and company recently, holding the Mavs to 105 points or less in six of the last seven meetings. Defense has also been the Suns’ calling card lately at home, where they’ve stayed below the total in six of their last seven — so the UNDER might be a Mavericks vs Suns prediction worth considering.

Odds Shark’s Computer Mavericks vs Suns Prediction: Suns -5.5

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