A day after a gritty, focused win over Houston in which the Pelicans shot 51.1 percent from the floor, they return home to play the second-best team in the Western Conference in the form of the Denver Nuggets. Denver has won three straight and seven of its last 10 games and opens as an 8-point road favorite. The total opened at 226.5.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Nuggets’ last five games vs the Pelicans (avg. combined score: 238.4).
- The Pelicans are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on a back-to-back.
- Denver is averaging 58.8 points in the paint in its last five games.
Nuggets vs Pelicans Game Center
Short-Handed Pelicans Get a Different Test
Without four of their top five scorers last night, New Orleans focused on disrupting James Harden en route to a win over Houston. The Pelicans will need to adapt that style against a Denver team that relies a whole lot less on outside shooting and instead will be feeding Nikola Jokic down low.
In contrast to the Rockets, Denver spreads the offense around – seven players are averaging more than 10 points per game. This will likely stretch and test the New Orleans defense that will already be fatigued from a high-intensity effort last night.
Nuggets’ Success Comes From Dominance in the Paint
Without Anthony Davis to defend the paint, Jokic is likely on track to eclipse his 20.1 points per game clip while helping maintain Denver’s 46.3 opponent’s points in the paint per game in January.
In Davis’ absence, former third overall pick Jahlil Okafor has been thrust into the starting lineup, playing a season-high 37 minutes last night. His 27 points were a season-high as well and the 23-year-old played a huge part in the win. He will be giving up an inch to the seven-foot Jokic and will have a much more difficult time tonight than last night when his biggest defender was six-foot-eight.
My Pick For Tonight
While I give full marks to New Orleans for earning a win on the road last night, I don’t think they have that kind of game tonight and I’ll be taking Denver at -8.
The Nuggets have won games by defending against the league’s top offenses and with the New Orleans offense decimated by injuries, I think Denver handles the Pelicans quite easily in this one. Denver is the best defensive rebounding team in the league, does not take a lot of personal fouls, and has kept opponents to 105.9 points per game.
This spread could act like last night’s Rockets spread and get up into the double digits quite quickly, so if you like Denver, I suggest acting sooner than later.
