The Denver Nuggets look to continue their hot pace as they seek a sixth straight victory when they visit the FedExForum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Nuggets claimed victory in three of the four contests with the Grizzlies last year, and are a 3-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 205 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Nuggets’ last five games vs the Grizzlies (avg. combined score: 193.8).
- The Nuggets are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games (avg. winning margin: 11.22).
- The Grizzlies are 4-0 SU in their last four games at home (avg. winning margin: 15.0).
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Game Center
Denver has struck a good balance between strong defense and offense
The Nuggets continue to roll on the season, being one of three teams left in the league that has just one loss. They began the year with a four-game winning streak and following their first loss of the year in LA, they have jumped back into the win column and are now seeking a sixth win in a row. Denver flexed its offensive muscles in its last time out, scoring 115 points against Boston, which allows the fewest points per game in the league at just 101.3. Jamal Murray led the way in that 115-107 victory, scoring a career-high 48 points.
For most of the season, though, the defense has been the root of the Nuggets’ success. They are surrendering just 102.4 points per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the Association, and are also allowing the fourth-fewest attempts from the floor per game. Denver doesn’t give up many free points either, averaging just 21 fouls per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the NBA. Overall, the squad doesn’t allow many shots against while also not taking many shots, leading to the seventh-slowest pace of play in the league.
Memphis has a very slow pace of play
The Grizzlies are looking to put an end to their first two-game losing skid of the season as they return home where they are undefeated this year. Memphis began its three-game road swing with a victory in Utah but dropped the next two games on back-to-back nights to Phoenix and Golden State. The offense was struggling in the two defeats, averaging just 101.5 points in those games, slightly below the 103.7 points the Grizz have been averaging all season, which is the third-fewest in the NBA.
With a scuffling offense through the early stages of the year, it’s a good thing that their defense is clicking. Memphis is surrendering the second-fewest points per game at just 102.1 while allowing its opponents to take just 78.3 shots from the floor, which is the fewest in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-slowest pace of play with a direct correlation to them allowing the fewest shots against and taking the fewest shots per game. They have had a hard time cleaning the glass, averaging the fewest rebounds per game, including the fewest offensive boards per game at just 7.2. That doesn’t bode well in this contest as the Nuggets give up the second-fewest rebounds to their opponents.
Should you be on the UNDER tonight?
Two defensive-minded teams are colliding and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 205 points. Denver and Memphis have gone UNDER in each of their last five meetings with an average combined score of 193.8. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have gone UNDER in seven of their 10 games this season and the Grizzlies have gone UNDER in six of their nine contests this year. These two teams rank in the bottom portion of the league in pace of play and neither team allows its opponents to take many shots per game, which strongly points toward the UNDER and that’s the bet to make.
My take on Denver vs Memphis
I like the UNDER tonight, but my favorite bet is the Nuggets to cover the 3-point spread. Memphis’ offense has been having a rough time this season and Denver’s defense is stifling, which should carry them to cover tonight. The Nuggets are 9-1 this year with an average winning margin of 11.22 points and are 7-3 ATS. Lastly, I think Nikola Jokic is going to absolutely dominate under the rim grabbing boards and limiting the Grizzlies’ second chances, keeping them to a low score.
