Currently second in the Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks continue to be a dominant force in the NBA and will look to push their home record to 8-1 SU when they host the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets have hit a bit of a skid over the last two weeks, dropping five of their last six games to drop to 10-6 SU in 16 games this season.
The Bucks opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 228.
- The Bucks lead the NBA in points per game at 121.1.
- The Nuggets have lost 5 of their last 6 games.
- The OVER has hit in 12 of the Bucks’ 15 games this season.
Bucks Have Been Dominant At Home This Season
After suffering their first home loss to Memphis by three points last Wednesday, the Bucks asserted their dominance over the Bulls in their last game for a 19-point win. The victory pushed their home record to 7-1 SU this season and they’ve won each of those games by an average of 15.5 points per game.
Where the Bucks have flourished is on the offensive side of the ball as Milwaukee is averaging 121.1 points per game which would be the highest points per game total since the late 1970s if the season ended today. Giannis Antetokounmpo is making his strong case for NBA MVP by averaging 25.6 points per game, 12.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists and has only been held below 20 points once this season.
Dating back to last season, the Bucks are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home and I expect them to continue their home dominance vs a team that will not have an answer in shutting down the Greek Freak. The Bucks beat this team just over a week ago on its home floor and at the -5.5 spread, the Bucks should easily cover as they haven’t won a home game by less than eight points this season.
Nuggets’ Swoon May Have Exposed Them
Every team in the NBA goes through ups and downs throughout an 82-game season but having dropped five of their last six games, all as a favorite, is frustrating for Nuggets backers. Denver was expected to take a leap into the upper tier in the Western Conference but this recent stretch may have shown its weakness and that’s defense. The Nuggets allowed 108.3 points per game and their only win in that stretch came against the Hawks, which isn’t exactly a high-five worthy achievement.
To be fair, their average loss margin in those games is 6.2 points and Denver has owned the overall matchup in recent years, winning 14 of the last 17 games in this matchup and six of the last eight games played at Fiserv Forum. I do think they will keep it close but end up losing outright and failing to cover the spread mainly because of their recent defensive issues.
High Total? No Problem!
The total opened at 228 in this showdown and with the Bucks involved, an OVER needs to be seriously considered. The Bucks are the highest-scoring team in the NBA and when they take the court the OVER seems to follow as it has hit in 12 of their 15 games this season with an average combined score of 231.4 points per game. The OVER has also hit in seven of their eight games at home with an average combined score of 229.5. The margin is slim but I still think the OVER comes through with these two offenses involved.
My Pick Is...
To take the Bucks to cover the 5.5-point spread. Milwaukee is playing with a different attitude this season and when Giannis is rolling, no defense can stop him and if I’m taking a favorite on the spread, I prefer to have the best player in the matchup. If bettors aren’t feeling the Bucks, the OVER would also be a decent wager.
