The Toronto Raptors carry an eight-game win streak into tonight’s game with the visiting Denver Nuggets in downtown Toronto. After 24 games, Toronto is the best team in the NBA with a 20-4 record split between home and away at 10-2 each. The Nuggets are tied for first place in the Western Conference with a 15-7 record, although they’re a pedestrian 6-4 on the road. Toronto opens as a 6.5-point favorite with early money coming in on the Raps and OVER the 218.5 total.
- The Raptors are 8-0 SU in their last eight games (avg. winning margin: 13.4).
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Raptors’ last eight games at home (avg. combined score: 235.1).
- The Nuggets are 5-0 SU in their last five games (avg. winning margin: 13.4).
Nuggets vs Raptors Game Center
The Raptors are for Real
The debate over whether trading for Kawhi Leonard was worth it has been essentially put to bed. Leonard has arguably done more for this hungry fan base than DeMar DeRozan was able to do in his entire tenure in Toronto. Leonard, in this analyst’s eyes anyhow, is the first bona fide superstar to play for the Raptors since Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady.
The former NBA Finals MVP went off for 37 points against Golden State on Thursday and followed it up with a 34-point performance in Cleveland on Saturday. He’s a huge reason that Toronto has the No. 4 scoring offense and No. 1 field-goal percentage in the league entering play Monday.
On the injury front, Kyle Lowry was a scratch in Cleveland but is expected to play tonight. Lowry leads the league in assists at 10.3 per game and is chipping in 15.4 points on average.
Games in Toronto Have Been High-Scoring
Toronto has the No. 3 scoring offense on home court with 119.7 points per game and the Raptors have taken the total OVER the closing number in seven of their last eight home games with an average combined score of 235.1.
In addition to their high-scoring offense, their No. 8 scoring defense drops all the way to No. 20 when you look solely at home games where Toronto’s opponents have scored 110.8 points per game at Scotiabank Arena.
That’s good news for the Nuggets as they’ve been four points under their season average in road games (106 vs 110 points), but remain the No. 9-ranked shooting team in the NBA.
My Pick for Tonight
I’m locking in an OVER bet on this game. The total initially opened at 218.5 but is starting to creep up at some books where I’ve seen it at 219. Our consensus data indicates that over three-quarters of totals bettors have bet over 218.5 thus far, which is generally a good indicator that the line will be moving upward.
Based on the high-scoring games the Raptors have played at home and the expected return of Kyle Lowry to the lineup, there’s no reason to believe that the trend will slow down any time soon.
When you look at Toronto’s games against other top teams this season: Golden State (259 points), Memphis (236 points), Boston (239 points), Philadelphia (241 points) and so on and so on for a 10-2 O/U record at home and 16-8 O/U record overall.
