The Denver Nuggets are scratching and clawing to catch the Golden State Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference and sit one game back of the Dubs. But in order to catch them, they need to go through the Oklahoma City Thunder first and if recent results are any indication, the Nuggets could be in line for the win. Denver has won five straight games vs the Thunder and three of its last four at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
The Thunder opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 221.
Nuggets vs Thunder Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Thunder have been a horrible spread bet since the all-star break as they’ve gone 5-13 ATS in 18 games and 2-5 ATS in seven home games. In those games, they’re allowing the opposition to shoot 37.8 percent from behind the arc (ranked 25th) on 29.7 attempts (ranked fourth).
- The Thunder’s offense has also been struggling since the break as they rank last in the NBA in field-goal shooting in that span (42.4 percent) on 95.3 attempts (ranked third) while ranking 25th in three-point efficiency (33.4 percent) on 35.9 attempts (ranked seventh).
- The Nuggets are 8-12 ATS in their last 20 road games. They average five fewer points scored per game on the road compared to home games this season and shoot a woeful 44.5 percent from the field in road games to rank 22nd. But they’ve also won three of their last four games in Oklahoma City while covering the spread each time.
- The Nuggets’ calling card all season has been their defense and since the all-star break, their effort on that end of the floor has carried them to an 11-6 SU record. They’re only allowing 106 points per game while limiting opponents to 31.3 percent from behind the arc (ranked third) on 32.1 attempts (ranked 13th).
- Nuggets road games have a penchant for going UNDER as the totals have hit below what was expected in 23 of their 36 road games and 15 of their last 17 overall. The UNDER has also hit in nine of their last 10 away from the Pepsi Center and those games had an average combined score of 214.2.
My Best Bet for Nuggets vs Thunder
UNDER 221
There are too many trends and stats to support an UNDER pick in this one and I’m happy to oblige. The Nuggets’ offense falls off a cliff in road games but their defense is still serviceable enough to limit teams offensively when playing away from Denver. There’s also the possibility that Paul George sits out due to a shoulder injury.
While I don’t think that will be the case, his injury has limited his ability to shoot as effectively lately and I think it only helps the UNDER if he plays because he can still play excellent defense. When you factor in that Denver has failed to top 100 points in its last three games, I think taking the total to fall short is the safe and smart play.
