Although this series is not being discussed like the other high-profile matchups for the NBA playoffs, the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers will look to bring some excitement tonight and take the edge in their second-round series. The Blazers struck back in Game 2 to tie up the series and now get to head home at the Moda Center, where they have yet to lose in the postseason.
Oddsmakers have tabbed the Blazers as 4-point favorites and Portland has won their last 17 games as a favorite, dating back to the regular season. The total also opened at 215.5.
Nuggets vs Blazers Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Blazers have been making waves this postseason after knocking off the Thunder and it’s mainly due to their three-point shooting. Portland is second amongst all playoff teams at 38.9 percent from behind the arc on an average of 30.9 attempts per game. However, through two games in this series, its three-point shooting has yet to break out as Portland has only hit 20 of 68 three-point attempts (29 percent).
- Further to the point above, the Nuggets couldn’t buy a basket in Game 2 as they shot a playoff-worst 34.7 percent from the field and were only able to put up 90 points. Jamal Murray was the biggest culprit with a 2 for 8 shooting performance from behind the arc. In two games of the postseason where the Nuggets shot less than 35 percent from behind the arc, they lost both times and failed to crack 100 points.
- The Blazers have played three playoff games at home so far in the postseason and Damian Lillard has been a beast in those games. The all-star capped off the series vs the Thunder with a 50-point barrage of three-pointers and layups and has scored 30 or more points in each game at the Moda Center. CJ McCollum shouldn’t be forgotten either as he’s averaging 22 points per home in the playoffs.
- The Nuggets weren’t a very strong team on the road during the regular season and that’s carried over to the playoffs. The Nuggets dropped two of three games in San Antonio in the first round and they allowed 113.7 points in those games compared to 98.7 points per home game (six games). The Spurs also shot 51.2 percent from the field on them in those three outings.
- OVER bettors will need to take a hard look at the total for Game 3 because of the trends coming into this matchup. The OVER has hit in the Nuggets’ last five road games (avg. combined score: 223.6) while the OVER has also hit in five of the last six games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 221.1). When you factor in that the OVER has hit in 15 of the Blazers’ last 19 games at home, it’s hard to envision this total falling short tonight.
My Best Bet for Nuggets vs Blazers
OVER 215.5
This total feels too low based on how the Nuggets’ defense has fared on the road in the playoffs. They have given up too many points in the paint when playing away from the Pepsi Center and let a team like the Spurs, who routinely average the lowest amount of shots in the NBA, to top 110 points in two of three games in the first round.
That’s why I like the OVER instead of the spread because the Blazers’ offense has been on fire when playing at home and I expect Lillard, who was held to 14 points in Game 2, to go off tonight and likely drop 35 points or more. Portland allowed the Thunder to score 110 points in two of three playoff games at the Moda Center and their frontcourt isn’t good enough to contain Nikola Jokic down low. If you don’t like the spread, I’d opt for the Blazers to cover but the OVER feels like the safer play.
