After a marathon of a game with four overtimes, the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets will take the court again for Game 4. The Blazers outlasted the Nuggets 140-137 to take a 2-1 series lead and have yet to lose on their home floor in the postseason. Oddsmakers have opened the Blazers as 3-point favorites and Portland has won its last 18 games as a favorite, dating back to the regular season. The total also opened at 210.5.
Nuggets vs Blazers Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Blazers may rank among the top three teams in three-point shooting in the playoffs but that has yet to carry over for this series. Through three games, the Blazers are averaging 29 percent from behind the arc and shot 28.6 percent in Game 3. Damian Lillard has only shot 9 for 28 from behind the arc in this series.
- Speaking of Lillard, the Blazers have played four home playoff games so far in the postseason and he’s been a beast at the Moda Center. The all-star capped off the series vs the Thunder with a 50-point barrage of three-pointers and layups and has scored 28 or more points in each game at the Moda Center. CJ McCollum shouldn’t be forgotten either as he’s averaging 28.7 points per home in the playoffs including a 41-point showing in Game 3.
- The Nuggets weren’t a very strong team on the road during the regular season and that’s carried over to the playoffs. The Nuggets have lost three of four road games in the postseason with opponents averaging 107.3 points per game and shooting 45.8 percent from the field.
- Nikola Jokic had another monster game for Game 3 as he finished with triple-double of 33 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists in the losing cause. The big man shot 50 percent from the field and is averaging 24.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists in 10 playoff games.
- OVER bettors will need to take a hard look at the total again for Game 4 because of the trends coming into this matchup. The OVER has hit in the Nuggets’ last six road games (avg. combined score: 223.6) while the OVER has also hit in six of the last seven games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 221.1). When you factor in that the OVER has hit in 16 of the Blazers’ last 20 games at home, it’s hard to envision this total falling short tonight.
My Best Bet for Nuggets vs Blazers
OVER 210.5
This total feels too low based on how these teams have fared when facing each other. It’s not a coincidence that the OVER has hit six of seven games between these squads since the start of the regular season. The Blazers’ offense has been on fire when playing at home and I expect Lillard, who is averaging 28.7 points per game at the Moda Center in the postseason, to have a huge game tonight. The Blazers’ frontcourt also isn’t good enough to contain Nikola Jokic down low which means the Nuggets should be able to put points on the board. If you don’t like the total, I’d opt for the Blazers to cover the spread but the OVER feels like the safer play.
