Seeing their six-game win streak fall apart with a home loss to the Blazers, the Utah Jazz will look to regroup with the Denver Nuggets in town. The Jazz are starting to make some noise in the Western Conference by winning nine of their last 11 home games and moving into seventh in the West playoff picture. The Nuggets may be second in the West at 31-14 SU but will be in tough to steal a victory in Utah, where they’ve lost seven straight games and haven’t won since 2014.
The Jazz opened as 3.5-point faves with a total of 216.5.
- The Jazz are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
- The Nuggets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games on the road.
- The UNDER has hit in the last 6 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 192.1).
Jazz Are Playing the Right Notes At The Right Time
After a stinker of a start to the season, the Jazz have regrouped and are playing some good basketball lately. Utah has gone 8-2 SU in its last 10 games and has won nine of the last 11 games at Vivint Smart Home Arena.
The Jazz have always hung their hat on defense as they rank third in the NBA in points allowed per game (105) and sixth in points allowed in the paint (44.2) with defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert roaming the key. Gobert is averaging career highs in points and rebounds per game while averaging 2.1 blocks.
In January is where the Jazz seem to have gotten their swagger back as they lead the NBA in points allowed per game, rank second in opponent rebounding and are fourth in point differential, which has all led to an 8-3 SU record this month.
The final nail in the coffin for why I’m in on the Jazz to win and cover tonight is that they’ve won seven straight home games vs the Jazz dating back to 2014 with an average win margin of 14.1 points per game.
Nuggets Haven’t Fared Well On The Road
For all the praise and hoopla about the Nuggets this season, no one seems to mention how mediocre they are on the road. Denver owns the second-best record in the Western Conference but is only 11-10 SU in 21 road games (9-12 ATS) and 3-6 SU in the last nine games away from the Pepsi Center.
The Nuggets are only averaging 105 points per road game and are middle of the pack in key offensive stats like field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and forced turnovers, which does not bode well for bettors counting on a Denver upset.
I’ve already mentioned how the Nuggets do when playing in Utah but did you also know that even as underdogs in each of those games, they only covered the spread once? I think Denver will be overwhelmed in the hostile environment in Salt Lake City and I have no problem fading them in this one.
UNDER ALERT!
The total opened at 216.5 and UNDER bettors have been cashing in on this matchup. The UNDER has cashed in the last six games between these two squads with an average combined score of 192 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in 11 of the Jazz’ last 13 games at home with an average combined score of 209.8 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the Jazz to cover the spread and the UNDER on separate bets. The Jazz are starting to resemble the team from last year that rolled through the West in the second half of the season and their personnel could cause fits defensively for the Nuggets. Both teams are also stout defensively so the UNDER trends match up with the low total, which I still think is too high.
