After splitting the first two games in this matchup with each team winning on their home floor, the Golden State Warriors head back to Texas to face the Dallas Mavericks. The Warriors have won five of their last six games and topped 130 points in four of those contests. The Mavs are fresh off an impressive road win over Minnesota and are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at American Airlines Arena.
The Warriors opened as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 228.
- The Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs Western Conference teams.
- The Mavericks are 16-4 SU in 20 home games this season.
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the Warriors’ last 5 games.
Warriors vs Mavericks Game Center
Golden State Continues to Be Unreliable Spread-Bet on Road
At 8-11 ATS in 19 road games this season, the Warriors have not been a profitable wager when asking them to cover the spread on the road. Bettors will point out that they’ve gone 6-3 ATS over their last nine road games but those six wins were against teams with losing records including some chumpy teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Atlanta.
When they face some of their Western Conference brethren on the road, that number takes a huge dip. Golden State is a shocking 2-9 ATS in 11 road games vs West teams and 5-6 SU. That’s what is frustrating about the Warriors is they’re the one team that is almost trend-proof because when focused, they can beat any team in the league by 30 points. But when not fully engaged, the oddsmakers will set the line too high and they’re content to just win the game but bury bettors’ spread wagers.
Over their last five games, the Warriors have been the former in the analogy above as they’ve won five of their last six games with an average win margin of 16.6 points per game. Since the calendar shifted to 2019, the Dubs are averaging an insane 132.3 points per game and have a +20.6-point differential.
Mavs Have Been Different Team at American Airlines Arena
Sitting at 20-22 SU in 42 games this season, the home and away splits for the Dallas Mavericks are almost laughable. The Mavs are 16-4 SU in 20 games at American Airlines Arena while 4-18 SU in 22 games on the road. The Mavericks are coming off a convincing road win over the Timberwolves and Luka Doncic continues to show he is not your prototypical NBA rookie.
The 19-year-old leads his team at 20 points per game and is averaging just over 22 points in six games in January. The Slovenian has the green light to shoot a ton of threes and to be able to shoot 36 percent from deep on an average of 6.5 attempts this season would be way larger of a story if we didn’t live in a world where every NBA player takes long-range shots.
When the Mavs hosted the Warriors back in November, the Dubs were shorthanded and didn’t have Stephen Curry or Draymond Green in the lineup so that has to be taken into consideration for capping this game. I still like the Mavericks to keep this game close and potentially win because when Golden State was at full strength and at Oracle Arena against Dallas, the Warriors still only were able to win by three points.
No UNDER is Safe with the Warriors Involved
The total opened at 227 and while it may be recency bias, the OVER looks great because of the Warriors’ offense. The Dubs are averaging over 130 points per game this month and the OVER has hit in four of their last five games with an average combined score of 246.4 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the Mavericks to cover the spread. I worry it could blow up in my face because the Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by 6.5 or more but I still think the Mavericks overcome that because they’re 7-1 ATS in eight games when tabbed as home dog this season. I’ll stick with the home team because of the conflicting trends.
