A heavyweight matchup is in the cards for the NBA tonight with the Golden State Warriors trying to knock off the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have been one of the most consistent teams in the league this season and have won their last 12 games at the Pepsi Center. The Warriors are starting to regain some of their championship swagger by winning five of their last six games and would take the lead back in the Western Conference with a victory tonight.
The Warriors opened as 2-point favorites with a total of 228.
- The Nuggets are 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- The Warriors are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- The OVER has hit in 5 of the Warriors’ last 6 games (avg. combined score: 244.7).
Warriors vs Nuggets Game Center
Nuggets Haven’t Been Intimidated by the Champs
To be able to say you have won three of the last four games in the matchup with the Warriors should give a team like the Nuggets some credibility but oddsmakers aren’t buying it. Denver has been an underdog at home twice this season and went 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 100-98 win over the Warriors back at the end of October.
The Nuggets have been outstanding at the Pepsi Center this season at 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS and are riding a 12-game win streak (average win margin: 15.5 points) in the Rocky Mountains. Denver’s defense has been the surprising development of the squad as it ranks fourth in the NBA in points allowed per game and second in the league in holding down teams on the perimeter at 33.2 percent from three.
I’m leaning to taking the Nuggets spread as they’ve covered in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup and during their home winning streak, they’ve covered the spread in nine of 12 games. However, with guard Gary Harris questionable to play and the fact that the Warriors could explode on an opponent at any time, proceed with caution.
Warriors Are Increasingly Frustrating For Bettors
Fading the Warriors as road favorites on the moneyline can be profitable in certain games but knowing which Golden State team will show up has made fading the Dubs a risky endeavor. That’s why taking the opposition to cover the spread has been the winning formula as the Warriors are 8-12 ATS in 20 road games this season and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 away from Oracle Arena.
I can blab on and on about how good the Warriors are but even the most novice bettor knows that with four top-20 players on the roster, they can dominate any team in the league when they’re clicking. Golden State is 6-1 SU over its last seven games and topped 120 points in six of them while averaging 129.6 points per game this month. Stephen Curry dropped 11 three-pointers against Dallas in the Warriors’ most recent game but even that wasn’t enough to cover the spread.
If you want to bet against the Warriors tonight on the spread, there are some decent trends to back up your wager. The Dubs are tied for the worst spread record in the NBA at 18-25 ATS and are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games when favored by 2 points or more dating back to last season.
Is Another OVER in Store?
The total opened at 228 and totals bettors looking for an edge in this game may want to consider the OVER. The OVER has hit in five of the Warriors’ last six games with an average combined score of 244.7 points per game. Golden State’s offense is clicking and Denver isn’t a slouch on the offensive end either, which is why the OVER has hit in 11 of the last 14 games in this matchup.
My Pick Is…
To take the Warriors moneyline. My gut feeling was to take the Nuggets but my instinct has gotten me in trouble lately with my bets so I’m taking the better team and bucking the trends of how the Warriors play on the road. I typically don’t like to use motivation as a reason for backing a team but first place in the West is on the line and Golden State will want to jump back on top.
