It’s not a “must-win” game for the Houston Rockets in Game 3 vs the Golden State Warriors but it may as well be. The Rockets dropped both games at Oracle Arena to put themselves in a massive hole against the defending champs and hope their offense can lift-off at the Toyota Center. The Rockets have won 10 straight at home and beat this team twice in Houston during last year’s Western Conference Final.
The Rockets opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 221.5.
Warriors vs Rockets Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- A lot has been made about how the Rockets are in a must-win situation for Game 3 tonight but the Warriors have been a tough team to beat when they play on the road in the postseason. Since Kevin Durant joined the Warriors for the 2017 season, they are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS in 21 road playoff games. However, it’s worth noting they dropped to two of four playoff games in Houston during last year’s Western Conference Final.
- Coming into Game 3, the Rockets have been near unbeatable at home. They’re riding a 10-game win streak and have won 15 of their last 16 games at the Toyota Center. In three home playoff games during this postseason vs the Jazz, the Rockets won each game by double-digits and are averaging 37.5 percent from behind the arc.
- Although the Warriors have been decent defensively in two games vs the Rockets, they haven’t been shutting down teams like in year’s past. In the postseason among the remaining playoff teams, the Warriors rank last in opponent three-point percentage (35 percent) and second-last in opponent field goal percentage (44.3 percent). However, through two games of this series, the Warriors have allowed 87 three-point attempts by the Rockets and held them to 34 percent from behind the arc and 43 percent from the field.
- Further to the point above, the Rockets did their best guarding the perimeter vs the Warriors through two games as they held the Dubs to 30.7 percent on only 58 attempts. The Rockets are holding teams to 27.4 percent from behind the arc in seven postseason games this year (ranked first) but in last year’s Western Conference Final vs the Warriors, they couldn’t stop them from raining threes which is why Golden State averaged 38.2 percent on 32.1 attempts from three-point range in that series.
- The UNDER has hit in nine of the last 11 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 211) and six of the last seven games when playing at the Toyota Center. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Rockets’ last five games.
My Best Bet for Warriors vs Rockets
Warriors Moneyline
I have seen this movie far too many times since the 2015 season when the Warriors are up 2-0 in a series and everyone picks them to fall in Game 3. Not this time. I think the Warriors are going to crush the Rockets because Golden State is so familiar with this team and their tendencies that I don’t see how the Dubs lose this game.
The only way I can see the Rockets winning is their periphery players like Eric Gordon or Austin Rivers have a massive game with 30 or more points to give James Harden a cushion and not feel like he has to outscore the Warriors by himself. Since Kevin Durant has joined the Warriors, they don’t typically lose on the road as evidenced by their 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS record in road games and while I'm not backing Golden State specifically on that trend, it doesn't hurt knowing that going into this critical game.
