NBA fans rejoiced when the Houston Rockets knocked off the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 because it meant that we didn’t have to watch the Warriors easily roll over another team en route to the title. Now, there could be some drama on tap for Game 4 as the Rockets have won 11 straight games at the Toyota Center and have won five of their last seven home games vs the Warriors.
Oddsmakers opened the Rockets as 1.5-point favorites for Game 4 with a total of 220.5.
Warriors vs Rockets Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- Since Kevin Durant joined the Warriors for the 2017 season, they are 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS in 22 road playoff games. However, they did fall in Game 3 and it’s worth noting they dropped to two of four playoff games in Houston during last year’s Western Conference Final.
- Stephen Curry has not been as sharp from three-point range in this series as he was against the Clippers in the first round. Curry is averaging 25.1 percent from behind the arc in three games vs Houston and shot 51.7 percent from three-point range against the Clippers.
- The Rockets’ may have gotten a breakout game from James Harden in Game 3 (41 points) but it was Eric Gordon and Iman Shumpert that pushed them over the top. Gordon dropped 30 points and hit seven threes while Shumpert went 3 for 5 from behind the arc to give Harden some support.
- Bench scoring was non-existent for the Warriors in Game 3 and it was likely the difference. The Dubs only got seven points from five reserves while the Rockets got 21 points from their bench. It shouldn’t be a surprise that both the Rockets and Warriors rank in the bottom two of remaining playoff teams in bench points per game.
- Coming into Game 3, the Rockets have been near unbeatable at home. They’re riding an 11-game win streak and have won 16 of their last 17 games at the Toyota Center. In four home playoff games during this postseason vs the Jazz, the Rockets won three games by double-digits and are averaging 38.9 percent from behind the arc.
- Although the Warriors have been decent defensively in three games vs the Rockets, they haven’t been shutting down teams like in year’s past. In the postseason among the remaining playoff teams, the Warriors rank last in opponent three-point percentage (37 percent) and second-last in opponent field goal percentage (45.1 percent).
- Although the OVER hit in Game 3, the UNDER had fairly profitable in this matchup with it hitting in nine of the last 12 games between the Warriors and Rockets (avg. combined score: 214.3) and six of the last eight games when playing at the Toyota Center.
My Best Bet for Warriors vs Rockets
Warriors Moneyline
Just because I took the Warriors moneyline in Game 3 and lost doesn’t mean I’m worried about taking them again in this spot. The Rockets needed an epic failure of a game from Stephen Curry and a huge outing from Eric Gordon just to edge them in overtime.
I also think the Dubs have figured out a good system with having Kevin Durant walk the ball up the court and being a playmaker because the Rockets have no answer for that type of offense. I expect the Warriors’ defense to regroup and focus on shutting down the secondary players like Eric Gordon and Clint Capela and make Harden have to go for 50 points.
