The Golden State Warriors can see the finish line of a tumultuous season with only two weeks left and may have some motivation to finish the year strong to ensure home-court advantage through the Western Conference playoffs. The Dubs face the Memphis Grizzlies, who are one of the bottom three teams in the West but have been a decent spread bet lately at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and have yet to be a double-digit underdog at home this season.
The Warriors opened as 11.5-point favorites (since moved to -10.5) with a total of 215.5.
Warriors vs Grizzlies Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Warriors are the second-worst spread bet in the NBA at 30-42-1 ATS, with the Knicks having a one-game lead on them for the basement. They’re also 6-10 ATS in 16 games since the all-star break. However, they have covered the spread in three of their last four games on the road, against the Rockets, Timberwolves and Thunder.
- Contrary to the above point, the Warriors have been excellent as a spread bet when tabbed as a double-digit fave on the road this season. The Warriors are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS with an average win margin of 20.8 points per game.
- Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley missed the previous game and is a game-time decision for tonight’s contest. In six games this season without Conley, the Grizzlies are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS with an average loss margin of 6.8 points per game. Memphis won its last game outright by 12 points over the Thunder with him on the sideline.
- The Grizzlies are notorious for being in low-scoring games this season. They rank last in the NBA in points scored per game at 102.8 and their average only increases to 103.3 in home games. It’s their defense that has been their calling card as they rank second in points allowed per game at 105.2 and that mark goes down to 102.8 in home games.
- In 17 games as a home underdog this season, the Grizzlies are 9-8 SU and 11-6 ATS. What’s surprising is they haven’t previously been a double-digit underdog this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Warriors’ last 12 games (avg. combined score: 217.75) and in their last eight games vs Western Conference teams.
My Best Bet for Warriors vs Grizzlies
Warriors -11.5
I loathe taking double-digit spreads in the NBA but this one feels like a lock. The Warriors will have their full roster off of two days’ rest and have been destroying teams as a double-digit fave on the road. The Grizzlies caught the Thunder off guard with Conley out of the lineup and I don’t think the Warriors will allow that to happen. The Grizzlies’ offense has been so awful this season that I don’t think they can muck this game up enough to keep the Warriors from scoring at least 115 points.
