Two of the top three scoring teams in the NBA will tip off in Milwaukee tonight as the resurgent Warriors visit a Bucks team that is playing just .500 ball in its last six games. Tonight’s game will be the biggest test for Golden State since getting Steph Curry back in the lineup last week and the Warriors are still playing without Draymond Green. This game opened as a pick’em at the betting window with the total at 240.
- The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home vs teams with winning records but 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Warriors’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 232.29).
- The Bucks are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games at home.
Bucks Have Been Outstanding at Home
Milwaukee has won 16 of its last 18 home games and is 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS at home this season.
Fiserv Forum has proven to be a difficult place for visiting teams to play, in large part due to the Bucks’ No. 2 home scoring offense and No. 8 home scoring defense, which has led to a +11.7 scoring differential on home court – tops in the Association.
Not the Highest Total for This Matchup
If you’re like me, seeing the total at 240 made you think, “is that the highest it’s been this year?” It’s not. In fact, when Milwaukee went to Oakland on November 8, the total closed at 242.5. The game ended 134-111 for the Bucks and an OVER total of 245.
So, can we count on the same thing happening tonight? Well, I don’t know if we can ever safely count on a total getting above 240, even if the No. 1 and No. 3 offenses in the NBA are on the floor. Looking at the recent body of work for both teams, Milwaukee has scored 121.1 points per game in its last three while Golden State has scored 119.7.
Looking at points against, Milwaukee is at 113.7 in its last three games, which is 3.3 points per game over its season average. Golden State has allowed 109.0, 2.2 points less than its season average.
What’s the Best Bet for Tonight?
For me, the total is a tough call because you can have a really high-scoring game that still doesn’t get to 240 points. After hitting a lull without Curry in the lineup, the Warriors seemed to get back to their winning ways with two convincing wins this week, albeit over Atlanta and Cleveland, two teams not quite the caliber of the Bucks.
I’m going to stay away from the total in this game as it feels like a trap to me and bet the Warriors at EVEN money on the moneyline. Golden State has won five of its last seven SU and one of those losses was a great game against the Raptors. I’m putting my faith and my money on Steve Kerr and Steph Curry.
