It’s so completely frustrating to back the “best” team in the NBA this season, especially recently, as the defending champions are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Coming off a straight-up loss as a 9.5-point favorite in South Beach last night, the Warriors will head north to Orange County as a 6-point favorite at the Amway Center against the Orlando Magic.
Standout Stats
- Golden State has won 11 straight games vs Orlando with an average winning margin of 13.8 points. The Warriors won the first meeting between the teams this season 116-110 on November 26 in Oakland.
- Golden State is 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS as a road favorite of 7 or fewer points this season. The Warriors scored an average of 116.3 points in those 13 games. Their team total for tonight is 116.5.
- Orlando has the No. 2 scoring defense in February at 101.7 opponent points per game – that’s five points better than their season average. Opponents are shooting just 31.8 percent from beyond the arc during that stretch of games, giving Orlando the No. 3 three-point defense this month.
- Golden State is shooting 49.1 percent from the floor (third) and 36.6 percent from beyond the arc (12th) this month. Orlando is shooting 37.9 percent from three – No. 5 in the league in February and up from its 35.3 percent season average.
- The OVER has hit in nine of Golden State’s 13 games as the visiting team vs the East, while the OVER has hit in eight of Orlando’s 11 home games vs the West.
- Golden State is No. 10 in pace of play this season while Orlando is No. 27. However, in February, the Magic are up to No. 17 in the league when you look solely at the last month.
- Related to pace, Golden State is scoring on 51.6 percent of its possessions, giving the Warriors the No. 1 floor percentage in the NBA. Orlando is No. 25 in that category, scoring on just 47.8 percent of its possessions.
My Best Bet for Warriors vs Magic
OVER 226.5 points
With the champs being such an unreliable bet, especially on the road, I am going to choose a side on the total and go OVER 226.5. The numbers all point to an OVER, including the home/road East/West stat noted above, the total going OVER in each of the Warriors’ last four games on a back-to-back, and the OVER hitting in each of the last three Magic home games.
Additionally, looking at scoring over the last month, Golden State is scoring 118.9 points per game, leading the league. Their opponents are scoring 112.7 on average.
