The Golden State Warriors are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games but just 4-6 ATS and I think it’s their spread record that is driving the Sportsbook number of -3.5 lower than it actually should be in Portland tonight against the Trail Blazers. The total opened at a massive 234.5. There’s no way I’m not taking the best team in the league at this number.
- The Warriors are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games.
- The Trail Blazers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home.
- Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
Warriors vs Trail Blazers Game Center
Think About it This Way
If you had never seen a basketball game before and I told you: you can get the best team in the league, the odds-on favorite to win its fourth championship in five years, a team playing its best ball of the season and that team is also first in scoring and shooting this season – laying 3 or 3.5 points against the No. 13 scoring defense, what would you do?
You’re betting that without asking many questions. Oh yeah, they’re healthy, have beaten the opposition by 10 and 28 points already this season and have won 16 of their last 17 games.
But Kris, They Played Last Night
Yes, the Warriors played the Jazz last night and Klay Thompson hurt a finger on his left hand – but don’t worry, he still played 32 minutes, scored 22 points and went 3-for-5 from deep.
Over their last 15 games, the Warriors are scoring 125.4 points per night and have a +14.9 point differential. Both marks are easily the best in the Association.
Granted, Portland is playing some good ball as well. The Blazers are scoring 118 points per game over their last 15 games and have compiled a +6.7 point differential. But here’s the thing. The Warriors score 32.4 percent of their points from beyond the arc, a number that has crept up to 34 percent over their last 15 games.
Unfortunately for the Blazers, they are among the worst teams at defending the three-point shot in the league, with opponents connecting on 36.8 percent of their three-point attempts. Through the first three games these teams played this season, the Warriors hit an average of 14 three-pointers per game, including sinking 17 on November 23.
My Play For Tonight
Of course, yes, it’s possible that Portland covers tonight, but every fiber in my being tells me that getting the Warriors at such a low number is a gift.
Golden State has lost against the spread a bunch recently, but that’s due to their success and, frankly, unreasonable betting spreads. OK, so they didn’t cover 9 last night, 13.5 on Sunday, 16.5 on Friday or 15 on the 2nd.
That means nothing heading into a game with a playoff team that should get the Warriors playing at or near their potential. It’s one thing to ho-hum their way through games they know they’re going to win, it’s entirely another to answer a potential test. Warriors cover tonight, 1.5 units.
