The humbled Golden State Warriors will look to regroup when they head upstate to the capital of California to face the Sacramento Kings. The Warriors took a huge loss in their last game when they got beaten by 20 points against the Raptors but have fared well when playing in Sac-Town as they’ve won nine of their last 10 games (6-4 ATS). The Kings, on the other hand, are playing some of their best basketball in years and are on a nice streak of wins in five of their last six games.
The Warriors opened as 9-point favorites (since moved to -8) with a total of 237 (since moved to 235).
- The Kings have won 5 of their last 6 games.
- The Warriors are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games in Sacramento.
- The UNDER has hit in 7 of the last 9 games in this matchup.
Kings Starting to Shake off the ‘Queens’ Label
With the Kings sitting at 15-12 SU through 27 games this season, count me among many who are shocked to see them eighth in the Western Conference standings. The Kings are fifth in the league in scoring and while they give up a ton of points (115.5), their youth and stockpiling of talent has put the league on notice.
The Kings’ young backcourt of Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox have started to hit their stride by combining to average 36.6 points per game while both are shooting over 40 percent from deep. Their shooting exploits coupled with the strong supporting cast (five players average double figures in points) have Sacramento first in the NBA in three-point percentage.
Now for the bad news. The Kings’ defense stinks. They rank 27th in points allowed per game, 25th in opponent field-goal percentage and 23rd in three-point percentage. I’m not trying to crap on them but numbers don’t lie. That’s why the majority of their recent wins are against chumpy teams like the Cavs, Suns and Bulls.
When you factor in they have dropped 18 of their last 21 games in this matchup and have yet to beat a divisional team at home this season, the good vibes may need to wait until after the Dubs leave town.
No Other Way To Describe It – Warriors Have Owned This Matchup
Look, the Warriors are allowed to have a bad game. No team goes 82-0 and when you rely on three-point shooting like they do, there will be a night when the shots don’t fall. So, there won’t be any overreaction from their loss to the Raptors but the Dubs need to come back out and start dominating teams.
Golden State is still 11-2 SU but only 7-6 ATS in 13 games when the Big Four are active, which is why I think the Dubs may be vulnerable on the spread. In 14 road games this season, the Warriors are 6-8 ATS and in their last nine games on the road, they’ve gone 3-6 SU.
They’ll also be without backup point guard Shaun Livingston, which could be trouble for them in stopping the Kings’ quick guards if Stephen Curry needs to match up with Fox all night.
There’s virtually no value on the moneyline for Golden State and while the Warriors have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in Sacramento, they only went 6-4 ATS. While that’s profitable, it still means they can be prone to a letdown. I’m fading the Warriors on the spread but still think they win this game.
The UNDER Seems to be the Profitable Wager in this Matchup
The total opened at 237 (moved to 235) and the UNDER may be the way to go. The UNDER has hit in seven of the last nine games in this matchup with an average combined score of 211.8 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Warriors’ last six games with an average combined score of 219.8 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I’m on the fence on taking the Warriors to cover a road spread until they show that they give a crap about regular-season games and 235 points is a lot to ask for considering this matchup typically yields a final combined score closer to 212 points.
