Fading the Golden State Warriors has been a profitable play this season as the champs are just 16-23 ATS through their first 39 games. Two of those spread losses came against their in-state rivals from Sacramento. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games and open as a 7.5-point favorite in Sacramento tonight. The total is a monstrous 238.5.
- Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when playing Sacramento.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last eight games at home.
- The Kings are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
Warriors Still Figuring it Out
We all thought that once Steph Curry and Draymond Green got back from their injuries that the Warriors would get back to dominating the NBA as they’ve done for the past number of years. Well, that hasn’t exactly happened as the Warriors are 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
The British historian, Lord Acton, famously said that “power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely” when referring to the ability for stability. As the Warriors have hoarded coveted free agents, it appears that they’ve also brought some selfish players into the fold who are having a tough time playing well with others.
Golden State has lived a charmed existence for a few years but it seems the dominance is not going to be there this season.
Kings Keep Scrapping for Respect
Sacramento was expected to be an also-ran this season in the flashy Pacific Division, but they’ve maintained a 19-19 record through 38 games and have been great for bettors, compiling a 21-16-1 ATS record.
The Kings are led by two young players in 26-year-old Buddy Hield and 21-year-old De’Aaron Fox. It’s no surprise, then, that the team has experienced some unexpected successes but also disappointing failures.
The young Kings have the No. 5 scoring offense in the NBA but just one player above 20 points per game in their lineup. That’s the definition of spreading it around as six guys have averaged over 10 points per game.
My Bet for This Game
We’ve got two of the top five scoring offenses in the league and two of the bottom 10 scoring defenses in the league meeting up in this one. The first two meetings this season had an average combined score of 244 and I think we’ll likely see the total get OVER 238.5 in this game.
We are seeing early betting action on the Warriors, so I expect this line to go higher than 7.5. Golden State has had trouble covering high spreads, especially in their division this year. I'm going to wait to see the best number I can get and take Sacramento because I like the Kings to cover the spread for the third straight time this season.
