Steph Curry will miss his second consecutive game while Draymond Green is dealing with a toe injury as Golden State will need to rely on its depth at Staples Center tonight. The Clippers are coming off an underdog win over the Bucks on Saturday after the Bucks dispatched the Warriors on Friday. The Clippers are a 3-point home dog in early betting.
- Golden State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing the LA Clippers.
- The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State.
- The Warriors are 22-28 ATS and O/U in their last 50 games without Steph Curry in the lineup.
Warriors vs Clippers Game Center
Champs have Unflattering Numbers When They’re a Small Favorite
Golden State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 regular-season games as a favorite of 7 points or less, including Friday night vs Milwaukee when the Warriors were a 5.5-point home favorite. One reason for this could be that oddsmakers are going to be hesitant to ever make Golden State an underdog or a pick’em even when all their data points to that conclusion.
So that brings us to tonight’s game where the Warriors will be without Steph Curry and playing with a limited Draymond Green as well. The Clippers are the No. 8 scoring team in the NBA, the No. 2 three-point shooting team and the No. 3 free-throw shooting team.
Some more data to consider: since the beginning of the 2015-16 season, without Curry in the lineup, the Warriors are just 22-28 ATS.
Top-10 Offenses, Top-10 Defenses
Despite both being in the bottom half of the league in terms of scoring defense, they are both in the top 10 in opponents’ field-goal percentage, opponents’ three-point percentage and point differential.
Those stats present a very compelling storyline for a matchup that has the highest Sportsbook total in the league tonight. 236.5 may be a difficult plateau to reach in this game with the league’s leading scorer not in the lineup, an expected low spread and teams that have kept opponents at bay for most of the year.
My Pick for Tonight
Despite historical data suggesting that the Warriors are actually a pretty good fade when playing without Curry and when they’re a small favorite, I just can’t pull the trigger on betting against Golden State and waking up with egg on my face.
So, I’m going to take UNDER 236.5 total points. Playing without Steph Curry on Saturday, the Warriors had a total of 216 points vs Brooklyn and they’ve only gone OVER 236.5 points once in their last four games. Likewise, the Clippers have only eclipsed that total once in their last five games.
With Curry out, I think this total is too high and I feel completely comfortable betting the UNDER in this game.
