In what many consider to be the true NBA Finals, the Houston Rockets will try to even the series vs the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 tonight. Game 1 was a slog for the offenses as neither team shot particularly well from behind the arc and both combined for 36 turnovers and only 204 points. The Warriors also failed to cover the spread for the third time in four home games in this postseason but opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 2 with a total of 220.5.
Rockets vs Warriors Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- Oracle Arena has not been a safe haven for spread-bettors looking to back the home favorite as the Warriors are 1-3 ATS in four home games in these playoffs. Coming into the postseason, the Warriors were the worst spread-bet at home with a record of 16-24-1 and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games vs the Rockets, dating back to the start of last season.
- Although the Warriors were decent defensively in Game 1 vs the Rockets, they haven’t been shutting down teams like in year’s past. In the postseason among the remaining playoff teams, the Warriors rank last in opponent three-point percentage (35 percent) and third-last in opponent field goal percentage (44.3 percent). However, in Game 1, the Warriors gave up 47 three-point attempts by the Rockets but held them to 29.8 percent from behind the arc and 41.9 percent from the field.
- Further to the point above, the Rockets did their best guarding the perimeter vs the Warriors in Game 1 as they held the Dubs to 31.8 percent on only 22 attempts. The Rockets are holding teams to 26.9 percent from behind the arc in six postseason games this year (ranked first) but in last year’s Western Conference Final vs the Warriors, they couldn’t stop them from raining threes which is why Golden State averaged 38.2 percent on 32.1 attempts from three-point range in that series.
- If bettors are looking for the first quarter and first half trends of these teams, we’ve got you covered. The Rockets have been a miserable bet for first quarter spreads lately and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games but seem to rebound in the second quarter as they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games during the first half. The Warriors, on the other hand, are 5-2 ATS on the first quarter spread in their last 7 games and 11-4 ATS on the first half spread in their last 15 games.
- The UNDER has hit in nine of the last 10 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 209) and five of the last six games when playing at Oracle Arena. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Rockets’ last five road games.
My Best Bet for Rockets vs Warriors
Rockets +5.5
I’m likely going to take the Rockets ML as well but I think the safest play is to take them to cover the spread so you get the five-point cushion if there are late-game shenanigans with referee Scott Foster involved. For the novice bettors, Rockets players have had major beef with Foster over the years and have gotten ejected or have had questionable calls go against them to decide a game.
I’m not ready to write off the Rockets just yet and if they want any hope in this series, they have to steal this game tonight or they may as well kiss their title hopes goodbye. If you don’t feel comfortable taking a spread, the UNDER is a decent alternative as the run-and-gun styles from these teams seems to get negated when they take the court.
