After dropping both games in Houston and looking vulnerable for the first time all season, the Golden State Warriors return home to Oracle Arena for a pivotal Game 5 vs the Houston Rockets. The Warriors shot terribly in both games at the Toyota Center with Stephen Curry only shooting 26 percent from behind the arc in this series. Golden State rarely loses to Houston at home when facing them in the playoffs and have won 10 of their last 11 postseason games in Oakland vs the Rockets.
The Warriors opened as 9.5-point favorites (since moved to -6) with a total of 219.5.
Rockets vs Warriors Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- If you just looked at the box score and team stats from Game 4, you’d think the Warriors rolled because outside of three-point percentage, they won nearly every category. Where Golden State fell short is offensive rebounds and blocks as its frontcourt hasn’t done enough to control the paint over the last two games.
- Stephen Curry has not been as sharp from three-point range in this series as he was against the Clippers in the first round. Curry is averaging 26 percent from behind the arc in four games vs Houston and shot 51.7 percent from three-point range against the Clippers.
- Bench scoring was non-existent for the Warriors in Game 3 and 4 and it was likely the difference. The Dubs only got 18 points over two games from their reserves while the Rockets got 18 points from their backups just in Game 4. It shouldn’t be a surprise that both the Rockets and Warriors rank in the bottom two of remaining playoff teams in bench points per game.
- Although the Warriors have been decent defensively in four games vs the Rockets, they haven’t been shutting down teams like in year’s past. In the postseason among the remaining playoff teams, the Warriors rank last in opponent three-point percentage (36.6 percent) and third-last in opponent field goal percentage (44.9 percent).
- The UNDER may be the profitable angle in this tilt as the UNDER has hit in eight of the Rockets’ last nine playoff games on the road. The total has also gone UNDER in 15 of the Rockets' last 21 games in this matchup when in the playoffs.
My Best Bet for Rockets-Warriors
Rockets +6
Call me crazy but I’m jumping off the Warriors’ bandwagon and siding with Houston in this one. I think the Rockets have figured out how to neutralize the deep-shooting threats of Curry and Klay Thompson and it’s their reserves that have stolen the show because outside of the Hampton 5, the Warriors are getting no contributions from their bench. I think the Rockets keep this game close (and likely win) so to get an extra six points is a bonus at this stage of the postseason.
