The Houston Rockets may not be as dominant lately with their roster short-handed but they should still offer a decent challenge to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Rockets are 5-4 SU in nine games in January and that record would likely be worse if James Harden wasn’t doing his best Wilt Chamberlain impression in the scoring department. The Sixers, on the other hand, dropped a tough one vs the Thunder in their last game out but are 19-5 SU in 24 home games this season.
The Sixers opened as 4-point favorites with a total of 233.5.
- James Harden is averaging 44.4 points per game in January.
- The Sixers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games after a home loss.
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the Rockets’ last 5 games.
Harden’s Heroics May Not Be Enough
At 44.4 points per game this month and scoring 40 or more in 10 of the Rockets’ last 13 contests, James Harden is the ultimate cheat code in the NBA. Harden’s scoring numbers are obviously historic and he’s led the Rockets to a 10-4 SU record in 14 games since Chris Paul has been on the shelf with a hamstring injury.
However, while I think the world of Paul, winning will be tough to sustain with center Clint Capela out. The Rockets only have one center on their roster in Nene Hilario and he’s going to need to play extended minutes to combat Joel Embiid. The Rockets are last in the league in points allowed in the paint (53.6) and with Embiid having 20 games of 30 points or more this season, it could be a bloodbath in the key.
That’s why I’m not confident that the Rockets can win this game or cover because the matchups down low will be too difficult to overcome. Factoring in that Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 road games, I’m fading the Rockets in this one.
Sixers Have Rebounded Well After a Loss
At 19-5 SU in 24 home games, the Sixers didn’t get to that record by playing inconsistently at Wells Fargo Arena. Philly has lost consecutive home games only once this season and is 8-1 SU in its last nine games after a home loss with a 16.2-point win margin in those victories.
The Sixers’ offense has been the straw that stirs the drink this season as they’re fourth in the NBA in points scored per game (115.2) and that figure jumps to 120.8 in January. Their offense has been fluid and appealing to the basketball junkie like myself with the 76ers averaging over 30 assists per game, which ranks second in the NBA in that span.
The potential absence of Jimmy Butler may make bettors a little squeamish on backing the Sixers tonight but even if he doesn’t play, I still like the Sixers’ chances to cover the spread based on the matchups down low. Joel Embiid will be heavily featured tonight as I expect Philly to try to slow down the pace and make Harden take tough shots and with the Sixers ranking sixth in opponent three-point percentage, the numbers back up that theory.
Totals Bettors May Want to Consider the OVER
The total opened at 233.5 and while I never feel great endorsing an OVER pick with a figure that high, this is one of those rare occurrences. The total has gone OVER in four of the Rockets’ last five games with an average combined score of 248.8 points per game. The Sixers are scoring the ball at a great rate lately and you know James Harden is going to show up and get at least 40 points himself. With the OVER hitting in five of the Sixers’ last seven games at home (average combined score: 237), taking an UNDER is far too risky.
My Pick Is…
To take the Sixers to win and cover the spread. Joel Embiid should feast on the Rockets in this game and Philly responds well when coming off a home loss. I think Houston will put up points but will ultimately fall short.
