The Houston Rockets are ready for liftoff when they head to the high altitude of the Pepsi Center to face the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Rockets have been struggling to begin the season at 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS and are ranked 28th in points per game compared to last season when they ranked third. On the flip side, the Nuggets have dropped three in a row and haven’t fared well in this matchup, dropping seven straight to the Rockets by an average margin of 12.8 points per game.
Despite that recent track record, the Nuggets opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 213.5.
- The Rockets are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs the Nuggets.
- The Nuggets are ranked 3rd in the NBA in points allowed per game (103.5).
- The UNDER has hit in the Rockets’ last four road games.
Rockets vs Nuggets Game Center
Rockets Have Owned the Nuggets Lately
Say what you will about the Houston Rockets’ title chances this season but clearly, this is not the same team that took the Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference final. The Rockets have been horrible offensively, ranking 28th in points scored at 102.7, which is almost 10 points lower than last year. The main drop-off is in three-point percentage as they shot 36 percent from deep on 42 attempts per game last season whereas this year they’re only shooting 32 percent on the same number of shots.
In a case of addition through subtraction, Houston seems to have cut ties with Carmelo Anthony, which may shore up some of their offensive and defensive issues this season as he was shooting a career-low 40 percent from the floor and was a complete disaster defensively compared to Trevor Ariza, whom he replaced.
I think the roster change and the fact that the Rockets have two of the top 20 players in the NBA in James Harden and Chris Paul should propel them to victory as they’re 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs the Nuggets (all as a favorite) with an average win margin of 12.8 points per game.
Nuggets’ Defense is Turning Heads
At 9-4 SU in 13 games this season, the Denver Nuggets are letting the NBA know that they are coming for a playoff spot. The Nugs are 6-2 SU at home this season and while their offense is middle of the pack, their defense has been outstanding as they rank third in points allowed per game.
Nikola Jokic has been a joy to watch for fans of passing big men as the seven-footer leads the league in assists by a center at 6.9 per game while also chipping in 17.8 points and 10.3 rebounds. He has been the bright spot on a squad that has dropped three straight games by a combined 11 points.
While I think the Nuggets will eventually make the playoffs and finish with close to 50 wins, I think a fourth loss in a row is coming their way tonight and believe that their defense will be tested significantly against a Rockets team that still leads the NBA in three-point attempts.
UNDER Bettors Cashing in on Houston Road Games
The total opened at 213.5 and the trends are pointing to an UNDER tonight. The UNDER has hit in the Rockets’ last four road games with an average combined score of 184.7 points per game. With the way that both defenses have played recently, an UNDER wager looks strong for this tilt.
My Pick Is...
To take the Rockets to cover the spread. I just think Houston is the better team and while I think the Nuggets have stepped up their game defensively, I don’t think their backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris can match up with James Harden and Chris Paul.
