After both Sportsbook with a thud in their season debuts, the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers will take the court tonight in Hollywood. The Rockets were throttled by the Pelicans in their home opener while LeBron James and the Lakers fell short in Portland. Houston has won 10 of the last 12 games in this matchup and is favored by 3.5 points to knock off the Lakers in front of a star-studded crowd at Staples Center.
- The Rockets are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in last 12 games vs the Lakers.
- LeBron-led teams are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the last 4 home openers of a season.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Rockets' last nine games vs the Lakers. (Avg combined score: 236.67)
Rockets’ Defensive Lapses Hard to Rectify
Houston is not a team that is used to losing at home. The Rockets went 34-7 SU in 41 home games last season and after getting smoked for 131 points by the Pellies, there may be some serious defensive issues to address. H-Town only allowed 120 points or more six times last season and allowed more than 130 points once….in double overtime. The absence of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute was a clear disadvantage for the Rockets as secondary players from the Pelicans like Nikola Mirotic and E’Twaun Moore combined for 51 points and seven three-pointers.
I expect the Rockets to get their poop in a group and reconfigure their defensive strategy vs the Lakers as they’ve gone 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in this matchup. One aspect I expect to change is James Harden’s efficiency as he only managed 18 points with four free throws, which is low considering he’s averaged double-digit free throw attempts per game in every season since he’s joined the Rockets.
The rebounding edge was a clear advantage for the Pelicans and the Rockets should rectify that tonight because no forward on the Lakers is even close to resembling Anthony Davis. Take the points for the Rockets.
Will the Bright Lights Propel the Lakers to Victory?
The Lakers did a lot of good things in the Sportsbook loss vs the Blazers like shooting 48 percent from the floor and getting an astounding 70 points in the paint. That’s cool if we’re playing basketball pre-2004 but the lack of shooting is what cost them and could be an issue going forward. Los Angeles shot 7 for 30 from three-point range with LeBron, Kuzma, Ingram and Lonzo combining to go 2 for 19.
Against the majority of the teams in the NBA, that will kill your chances. It also doesn’t bode well when facing a team like the Rockets that has led the NBA in three-point attempts for the past three seasons.
I wrote about how “new” LeBron-led teams do in the first 20 and 30 games of the season and the trends are holding up. In the first 20 games of both of the 2010 Heat and 2014 Cavs’ seasons, those teams combined for an ATS record of 13-27 in a 40-game sample size.
I don’t expect the Lakers to be garbage for spread-bettors all season but the public money that will be coming in on them should make it very advantageous for fading the Los Angeles. The -3.5 line may drop closer to -2.5 or -2 by tip-off so timing will be key.
If Lake-Show backers are looking for a trend to support their case tonight, it’s worth noting that LeBron-led teams are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the last 4 home openers of a season.
OVER Bettors Should Be on Alert for this Tilt
The total opened at 235.5 and the OVER looks profitable in this one. Both teams gave up over 125 points in their opener and the OVER has hit in seven of the last nine games in this matchup with an average combined score of 236.6 points per game. The Lakers’ defensive woes do not seem to be solved and I anticipate them giving up at least 120 points tonight.
My Pick is…
To take the Rockets to cover the spread. I’ve planted my flag on fading LeBron and the Lakers for the Sportsbook 20 games of the season and I don’t plan to bail now.
