The Houston Rockets may be getting their poop in a group at the right time as they’ve won five in a row and are starting to resemble the same squad that had the best record in the NBA last season. After a methodical beatdown of the Celtics, the Rockets look to take down the Toronto Raptors, who are coming off an ugly road loss to the Pistons without Kawhi Leonard. Neither team has been especially sharp against the spread lately with the Raptors going 1-7 ATS in their last eight while the Rockets are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
The Raptors opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- Since Chris Paul has returned from injury, the Rockets have been road underdogs three times. They’ve won each game outright – against Boston, Golden State and Utah.
- Since February 1, the Raptors have been home favorites of 3 points or more seven times. In those games, the Raptors are 6-1 SU but only 2-5 ATS.
- During the last 10 games, the Rockets and Raptors both rank in the top five in point differential (+5.5, +5.4) and both average 116 points per game.
- The Raptors have been routinely burning spread bettors as they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight games with five of those at home.
- Kawhi Leonard is expected back in the lineup tonight after missing the last game vs Detroit. In the next game after he missed the previous contest, the Raptors are 9-2 SU but only 4-7 ATS while going 1-5 ATS in the last six games in that spot.
- The Rockets are 3-8-1 ATS in 12 road games vs Eastern Conference teams and have failed to cover in nine of their last 11 games in Toronto.
My Best Bet for Rockets-Raptors
Raptors Moneyline
I know some bettors will scoff at the idea of taking the moneyline instead of the spread that’s hovering around -3.5 (-150) depending on the book but I’ve seen enough of both of these teams that I can’t trust them to get me paid in this spot. The Raptors should win most home games by four points or more but they can’t seem to put away teams in the fourth quarter.
I think with this game being so close, it is essentially a coin flip, so I’ll side with the home team as Kawhi Leonard has shown that he can close out games with late jumpers. I think this will come down to the final possessions and I’ll be thankful I’m on a moneyline instead of a spread.
