A highly anticipated matchup will take place in Beantown tonight when the Indiana Pacers take on the Boston Celtics. Both teams are red-hot coming into this one with the Pacers winning 14 of their last 17 games while the Celtics have claimed victory in six of their last eight and have won five straight at TD Garden. The Pacers may have won the last three games in this matchup but they opened as 6.5-point underdogs with an Sportsbook total of 214.
- The Pacers are 5-1 SU and ATS in 6 games this season when on the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
- The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- The UNDER has hit in the last 3 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 195.6).
Will the Pacers Run Out of Gas?
Indiana doesn’t get the hype in the Eastern Conference like the Raptors, Bucks and Sixers do but the Pacers should get a lot more mentions. Indy is third in the East, only 1.5 games back of Toronto for the top spot, and has been doing a lot of damage on the road at 13-8 SU in 21 road games.
The depth on this team is what stands out because the Pacers have six players averaging double figures in points and actually score four more points on the road per game than they do at home. Another facet of the Pacers’ surge is their defensive ability because they lead the NBA in points allowed per game (102.3) and despite their nickname have the slowest pace in the league, which helps to neutralize easy buckets on the fast break.
More often than not, I try to steer clear of taking teams when they’re on the second game of a back-to-back but the Pacers have not been deterred in that spot as they’ve gone 5-1 SU and ATS in six games in that circumstance with an average win margin of 8.8 points per game. When you consider they’ve covered the spread in the last four games in this matchup, I can’t blame bettors for wanting a piece of the Pacers tonight.
TD Garden Is a Difficult Place To Steal Wins
Prior to the season starting, the projected win totals had the Boston Celtics at 58.5 wins, and the C’s already have 15 losses. Well, I think we may have overestimated the projected dominance of a roster that goes 10 deep because that’s the issue: they have too many guys. Each player on that roster thinks he deserves to be a starter and that may have led to chemistry issues earlier in the season.
The problems may have moved on for now because when the Celtics take the floor at home, they’re dominant. They’ve won their last five games by an average margin of 15.6 points per game and covered the spread in each. Boston may play in the East against some weak teams but dating back to last season, they’re 17-3 against the spread vs teams with winning records and 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in 14 games vs East teams.
The return of Kyrie Irving should help to boost the offense as he’s averaging 22.9 points per game and scored 17 points in his first game back against the Nets. I’m not confident his return will push the Celtics to win by seven or more but he should at least ensure that Marcus Smart (36 percent from the field) isn’t taking the bulk of the shots in the backcourt.
Low-Scoring Games Typically Follow When These Teams Clash
The total opened at 214 and based on the last three games between these Eastern Conference squads, another UNDER is on the docket. The UNDER has hit in the last three games in this matchup, with an average combined score of 195.6 points per game, and in 10 of the last 14 games overall.
My Pick Is…
To take the Pacers to cover the +6.5 spread. I know the trends point heavily in favor of the Celtics but I think this is too many points for Boston to win by given how strong the Pacers have played of late. Indy has proven it can play well when taking the court on consecutive nights and the absence of Myles Turner shouldn’t be enough to fade them.
