Two teams trending in the wrong direction will take the court tonight when the Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers. The Celtics have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season and have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven home games. But they may be primed for a bounce-back with the Pacers coming to town having dropped their last nine road games.
The Celtics opened as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 213.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Celtics have been a much better team at home than on the road this season at 26-12 SU and 20-18 ATS in 38 games at TD Garden. But they have been terrible since the all-star break at 7-10 SU and 6-10-1 ATS. They’re allowing teams to score 112.8 points per game while ranking 22nd in opponent field-goal percentage.
- When the Celtics hosted Indiana back in January, they throttled the Pacers by 27 points, shooting 56 percent from the floor and 48 percent behind the arc.
- Since the all-star break, the Celtics are 1-6 ATS in seven home games and, outside of the lone game in January, they have failed to cover in four of the last five games in this matchup.
- The Pacers routinely rank as one of the best defenses in the NBA. They only allow 103.9 points per game (rated first) but that average goes up to 108 in road games. As a result, the Pacers have lost nine straight road games (only one as a favorite) and failed to cover in eight of those games.
- The Pacers on the road allow opposing teams to shoot 47 percent from the field (rated 21st) compared to 42.1 percent at home, which is rated first. Opponents also shoot 37.5 percent from behind the arc (rated 28th) in Pacers road games compared to 33.2 percent in their home games (rated second).
- Pacers games have been extremely rewarding to UNDER bettors lately. The UNDER has hit in seven of their last eight games on the road (avg. combined score: 207.5) and in nine of their last 11 overall (avg. combined score: 206.8). For the two games that did go OVER in that span, the final combined scores were 212 vs Denver (home) and 226 vs the Clippers (road). Another stat to note is the Pacers have only topped 100 points in two of their last seven road games.
My Best Bet for Pacers vs Celtics
UNDER 213.5
I’m done betting on either of these teams for moneylines and spreads only to get kicked in the face with an awful performance. Both teams have cost me (and many other bettors) wayyy too much money to make me a believer. So, I’m banking on a low-scoring game and with the Pacers involved, that’s not far-fetched.
Indiana’s offense has been a train wreck since Victor Oladipo got hurt and its defense has not been up to snuff when playing on the road compared to at home. I’m sure there are bettors out there who will make a case for either team to cover the spread but I don’t want to hear it. I’ve seen enough and lost enough to take a knee and punt to a total instead.
