Miami Looks to Continue Strong Home Play As Favorites Over Pacers

The Heat played to the OVER in five of their last seven games. They’re hosting a Pacers squad that has gone UNDER in eight of their last 11 games and have the league’s fourth-toughest defense, so are Miami’s recent struggles against Indy a sign of what will happen Friday? 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Miami has been one of the league’s most dominant home teams all season, while the Pacers are just 7-7 SU and ATS in their 14 road games this season. That lead to the home Heat Sportsbook as five point favorites, despite Indiana having a lot of recent success against Miami.

Indiana News & Notes

The Pacers come out of the holiday break 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, including their most game, a 120-115 overtime win against the Raptors on Monday.

Despite being without leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon, who was sidelined with a hamstring strain, the Pacers moved to 21-10 on the season behind 24 points from T.J. Warren and Myles Turner, as well as 19 points from Aaron Holiday, who was starting in place of Brogdon.

Brogdon is questionable to play Friday, so look for the Pacers to rely again upon a balanced offense and their fourth-ranked defense against the Heat. Considering they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Miami, and the total has gone UNDER in each of Indiana’s last five road games, that game plan may work perfectly in the Pacers’ favour.

Miami News & Notes

The Heat may not be perfect anymore, but they are still one of the toughest teams in the NBA to beat at home. In 14 games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season, Miami is 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS, with their only loss coming against the Lakers.

The Heat averaged nearly 11 points more per game at home, behind five players — Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic — whom all average more than 16 points per game in Miami. They also outscore opponents by an average of 13.5 points per game at home, powered by a defense that has the sixth-best defensive rating in the NBA.

Miami will be tested against a Pacers squad that has gotten the better of them lately, as they have lost five of their last six games SU against Indiana, so they’ll need to improve their play if they want to continue having the league’s best home court winning percentage.

Betting Pick: Heat -5

Despite Indiana’s recent success against Miami, the Heat are a different — and better — team this season. They’re also dominant at home, while the Pacers are so-so on the road, so I’ll take Miami to cover.