Miami has averaged a 10-point margin of victory through the first three games of this series, and the Heat opened as 8-point chalk to finish the Pacers off in Game 4. Indiana has failed to cover the spread in seven straight first-round playoff games, going 0-6-1 against the number.
- Date/Time: August 24, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Arena: HP Field House
- TV Coverage: TNT
- Sportsbook Odds: Heat -8 | O/U 216.5 (Line History)
- Pacers vs Heat Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
After Miami won each of the first three games by nine points or more, the line for Game 4 opened as the largest point spread in the series. Early action has anticipated Indiana won’t go down without a fight, betting the Pacers down to +6 by Sunday night.
Indiana News & Notes
When you’re facing a 3-0 series deficit, it’s hard to find reasons for optimism. However, the Pacers could be buoyed by the news that injured all-star Domantas Sabonis has returned to the bubble and might be able to suit up if the series is extended to six games. The seven-footer, who has yet to play in Orlando due to plantar fasciitis, averaged 18.5 points and 12.4 rebounds per game this season.
But it feels like too little, too late for an Indiana team that is already showing signs of frustration following Saturday’s 124-115 loss. Coach Nate McMillan chastised his team’s defensive effort after the Heat scored a franchise playoff-record 74 first-half points, and the Pacers were pointing fingers at the officials after Miami was given 52 free throws — nearly twice the Pacers’ 28 attempts from the charity stripe.
Indiana leading scorer TJ Warren continues to be bottled up by the Heat defense as well. Warren, who averaged 31 points per game in the seeding round, has averaged just 19.7 points per game in the series.
Miami News & Notes
Point guard Goran Dragic has thrived since being moved into the starting lineup at the start of the playoffs. Dragic keyed the Heat’s first-half success in Game 3 with 18 points in the Sportsbook 24 minutes, knocking down seven of his 10 field-goal attempts — including four of six from behind the arc. The veteran, who came off the bench much of the year, is averaging 22.7 points per game in the series on 48.1 percent shooting from the field and 47.8 percent from distance. More importantly, Miami has outscored the Pacers by 30 points when Dragic has been on the floor.
Balanced scoring has also keyed Miami’s dominance of the series so far, with Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler joining Dragic as Heat players all averaging more than 15 points per game through the first three contests. Adebayo and Butler combined to score 20 of Miami’s 30 fourth-quarter points after Indiana had trimmed the Heat’s 20-point lead down to four.
Betting Pick: UNDER 216.5
The only OVER Indiana has played in its last six games came on Saturday, when the teams combined for 80 free throws. With their backs against the wall, I’m expecting a better defensive effort from the Pacers and hoping to hear fewer whistles from the officials.
- The Heat have won each of the first three games by 9-plus points.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Pacers’ last 6 games.
- The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs the Pacers.
