If you just glanced at the NBA standings for the first time in months, you would think the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are having decent seasons. However, since the all-star break, both of these teams are slumping hard as they have a combined 13-20 SU and 10-23 ATS record and are tumbling in the standings. The Thunder have been especially brutal for spread bettors, failing to cover in 13 of their last 17 games and in seven of their last eight at home.
The Thunder opened as 7-point favorites (since moved to -6) with a total of 215.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Thunder have been a horrible spread bet since the all-star break as they’ve gone 4-13 ATS in 17 games and 1-5 ATS in six home games. In those games, they’re allowing the opposition to shoot 37.5 percent from behind the arc (ranked 25th) on 29.6 attempts (ranked fourth).
- The Thunder’s offense has also been struggling since the break as they rank last in the NBA in field-goal percentage in that span (42.3) on 95.5 attempts (ranked third) while ranking 25th in three-point percentage (33.2) on 35.9 attempts.
- The Pacers are one of the best defenses in the NBA. They only allow 103.9 points per game (rated first) but that average goes up to 108 in road games. As a result, the Pacers have lost eight straight road games (only one as a favorite) and failed to cover in seven of those games.
- The Pacers on the road allow opposing teams to shoot 47 percent from the field (rated 21st) compared to 42.1 percent at home, which is rated first. Opponents also shoot 37.5 percent from behind the arc (rated 28th) in Pacers road games compared to 33.2 percent in their home games (rated second).
- Pacers games have been extremely rewarding to UNDER bettors lately. The UNDER has hit in six of their last seven games on the road (avg. combined score: 207.4) and in eight of their last 10 overall (avg. combined score: 206.9). For the two games that did go OVER in that span, the final combined scores were 212 vs Denver (home) and 226 vs the Clippers (road). Another stat to note is the Pacers have only topped 100 points in one of their last six road games.
My Best Bet for Pacers-Thunder
Thunder -6
I went back and forth on deciding between the UNDER or taking the Thunder to win handily but I decided to buck the trends and take the better team. The Pacers’ offense has been awful in road games lately and while I think the Thunder’s defense has slipped recently, I still think they can hold this team to 100 points or less.
The Thunder have had an extremely hard schedule since the all-star break with 14 of their 17 games against teams with winning records and I think this is (pardon the pun) a layup of a game for them. The Pacers’ defense hasn’t performed well at all in road games lately and their offense stinks so if the Thunder were to drop this one, they may have bigger issues than a recent slump.
