The Indiana Pacers are back on the road for a two-game trip with their first stop coming at Madison Square Garden to collide with the New York Knicks. The Pacers won two of the three games against the Knicks last season and open as a 6-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 211 points.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Pacers’ last five games on the road (avg. combined score: 211.0).
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Knicks’ last seven games at home (avg. combined score: 220.71).
- The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
Indiana shooting the lights out
The Pacers are making the most of their opportunities this season, as they lead the league in three-point shooting percentage at 43, but they take the fewest three-point attempts at 22.6. Indiana has the second-best shooting percentage from the floor at 50.1, but once again only takes 86.4 shot attempts per game, which is the sixth-fewest in the NBA. All of this culminates with the Pacers having the slowest pace of play of any team in the league. They like to be methodical in their offense while looking for the right shot and typically that comes from Victor Oladipo, who has led the team in points in five of seven games this year.
Due to their slow pace of play, they drag their opponents down to their level and they average just 85.6 shot attempts against per game, which is the seventh-fewest in the NBA. This doesn’t bode well for a team like the Knicks as they have the sixth-lowest shooting percentage in the league, despite taking the third-most shots. Additionally, Indiana creates the eighth-most turnovers per game at 15.9 and takes advantage of those opportunities, scoring the second-most points off turnovers at 21.3.
Offense has been a big issue for the Knicks
With Kristaps Porzingis still on the sideline, New York is having a hard time getting things going. The Knicks are averaging the third-most field-goal attempts per game, but they aren’t hitting as just 43.1 percent of those attempts are going in, the sixth-lowest average in the league. Because of this, they are scoring just 106.7 points per game. Many of these shot attempts are tough looks as New York doesn’t move the ball around well – the Knicks average the fewest assists per game at 19.7, and 60.5 percent of their two-point field goals come unassisted.
The Knicks are fairly active defensively, though, allowing the 10th-fewest assists against and ranking 11th for points allowed per game at 110.7. Their in-your-face defensive style has resulted in them creating 16.1 turnovers per game, which is the seventh-most in the NBA, and they have turned their opponents’ mistakes into points as they score an average of 18.9 points off turnovers, the 10th-most in the league.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
New York and Indiana had an average combined score of 218.33 in their three-game season series last year and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 211. Meanwhile, the Knicks have gone OVER in five of their last seven home games with an average combined score of 220.71. Additionally, Indiana has gone OVER in four of its last five road games with an average combined score of 211. Lastly, the Pacers are allowing just 102.9 points per game this season but that rises to 105.5 in their road games, while the Knicks go from 106.7 points per game on the year to 110.5 points per game at home.
My take on Indiana vs New York
I like the OVER 211 points for tonight’s game. In addition to the points above, the Pacers have gone OVER in four of their last six games with an average combined score of 214.83 and each of their last five games against Eastern Conference foes has gone OVER. Lastly, the two teams have had an average combined score of 213.57 over their last seven meetings dating back to the start of the 2016-17 season, with only two games going UNDER 211 points.
