Coming off two straight losses on the road, the Toronto Raptors return home licking their wounds and will look to knock off the red-hot Indiana Pacers tonight. The Pacers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 away games and were riding a seven-game win streak before dropping an ugly home loss to the Cavaliers. The Raptors have been banged up lately with Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka out tonight but they are expected to have Pascal Siakam back in the lineup and are 11-4 SU in 15 home games this season.
The Raptors opened as 7-point favorites (since moved to 5) with a total of 208.5 (since moved to 209).
- The Pacers lead the NBA in fewest points allowed per game (100.9).
- The Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The OVER has hit in 10 of the Raptors’ 15 home games this season.
What’s Wrong with the Raptors?
The Toronto Raptors may still lead the NBA standings at 23-9 SU in 32 games but they have gotten mixed results lately at 3-5 SU and ATS in their last eight games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10. The Raptors have had a pretty tough schedule over their last 10 contests including games against the Warriors (twice), Denver (twice), Milwaukee and the Clippers. With all the injuries they had, it still bodes well that they went 5-5 SU but it’s starting to show that other teams are catching on to Toronto’s strategy of threes and iso-ball with Kawhi Leonard.
Kawhi may need to be leaned on even more heavily with the announcement that Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are expected to be out tonight. Lowry and Ibaka are combining for 30.9 points per game and K-Low leads the NBA in assists per game. The Raptors lost their last two games with Lowry out of the lineup but they are expected to have Pascal Siakam back on the court, which should help Toronto and its perimeter defense.
I like the Raptors to win this game but am hesitant to take them on the spread given how they’ve struggled to close out games lately and how well the Pacers have been playing on the road.
Pacers’ Defense is Outstanding
Holding teams to less than 100 points in seven of their last 12 games, the Pacers’ defensive efforts have been excellent so far this season. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring defense at 100.9 points per game and that side of the court has helped the Pacers win nine of their last 13 road games with teams being held to less than 100 points in six of those contests. Teams are only shooting 43.7 percent from the floor vs the Pacers and they rank second in the league in points allowed in the paint.
On the flip side, their offense has been below average as they are last in the NBA in pace, 25th in points per game (106.2) and 24th in shot attempts per game (86.3). But just because they don’t take as many shots doesn’t mean they don’t hit them as Indy ranks fifth in three-point percentage, seventh in overall field-goal percentage and 10th in points in the paint.
I’m unsure if the Pacers can keep up with the Raptors’ three-point attempts but I do think they will keep this game close, which is why if I had to make a spread pick, I’d side with the Pacers tonight.
OVER ALERT for Raptors At Home
The total opened at 208.5 (since moved to 209) and I like the OVER to come through for totals bettors in this matchup. The OVER has hit in 10 of the Raptors’ 14 home games this season with an average combined score of 232.2 points per game with only one of those games going UNDER a final combined score of 210.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I know the Pacers’ defense is good but the Raptors are going to shoot a lot of threes and I expect the Pacers will need to keep pace (see what I did there) if they want to keep it close and up their shot attempts. 208.5 is just too low a total for any given NBA game and based on recent history in Toronto, it should be much higher.
