A short-handed group of Raptors picked up a huge victory over the Milwaukee Bucks in Wisconsin last night and will return home from a mini two-game road trip to play a Pacers team that is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10. Toronto opens as a three-point favorite with the total at 208.5.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Indiana.
- Toronto is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.
- Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
Could This Spot Be a Letdown for Toronto?
Tonight marks just the second time this season that the Raptors play a home game the night after a road game. Ironically, the first time was after a loss in Milwaukee on October 29 when they defeated the Sixers the following night, 129-112.
Nick Nurse’s group hasn’t seemed to have a problem getting up for its second game in 24 hours this season as the Raps are 6-1 SU and ATS in this spot in 2018-2019, with an O/U record of 5-2.
With the Pacers entering this game as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, I don’t think the Raptors will be able to have an emotional letdown in this spot in front of the energetic Scotiabank Arena.
Don’t Let Pacers’ Recent Success Fool You
While it’s undeniable that Indiana is on an impressive run in its last 10 games, we need to look at the Pacers’ schedule over that stretch. Two wins over Atlanta and wins over Chicago, New York, Brooklyn, Washington and Detroit. It’s not exactly a who’s who of NBA powerhouses.
One of their two losses during that stretch came against these very Raptors on December 19 in Toronto. Like they will be tonight, Toronto was without Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valenciunas in that game as well. Kawhi Leonard led Toronto with 28 points while Pascal Siakam added 17. Victor Oladipo was Indiana’s top scorer with 20 points.
Pacers Are Playing Some Higher Scoring Games
Indiana has been one of the NBA’s best UNDER bets this season at 15-23 O/U on the year. Looking closer at their recent schedule, though, the Pacers have played to the OVER in five of their last six games and are 10-9 O/U as the visitor.
My Pick For Tonight
I’m going to stay with the trend of Pacers games to the OVER in combination with the Raptors 12-7 home O/U record. 208.5 is the second-lowest total for a Raptors home game this season and even though these teams played to fewer than 200 points a couple of weeks ago, I think Toronto was still adapting to playing without Kyle Lowry at that point – something they seem to have adjusted to as of late.
Toronto will also be without Kawhi Leonard tonight, so in that case I am going to lean toward Indiana on the spread.
