In what’s expected to be the main event for the NBA's five-game slate on Christmas Day, the Los Angeles Lakers head upstate to face the juggernaut known as the Golden State Warriors. This will be LeBron James’ first game against the Warriors in Purple and Gold since losing to the Dubs in the NBA Finals last June. While the Lakers roster may be better than what he was working with in Cleveland, it may be a tall order for Los Angeles to go into Oracle Arena and get the W.
The Lakers opened as 10.5-point underdogs (since moved to +9) and it will be the largest spread they’ve faced this season.
- LeBron-led teams have lost 8 straight games vs Golden State (Average loss margin: 13.7 points per game).
- The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Lakers last 18 games.
Lakers vs Warriors Game Center
Golden State Will Go Down as LeBron’s True Nemesis
If you take one look at the databasefor how Cleveland (LeBron’s former team) has fared against Golden State, it’s extremely one-sided. Since the powerhouse known as the Warriors emerged in 2015, LeBron-led teams have not been up to snuff as they’ve lost 12 of the last 13 games in this matchup (all as an underdog) and only covered the spread in two of those contests.
The Lakers have gone an ugly 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight road games. This swoon has dropped the Lake-Show to 19-14 SU in 33 games this season but with how competitive the Western Conference is this year, they’re only 3.5-games back of the Nuggets for first place.
LeBron James has been featured in 12 Christmas Day games in his 15-year career and when the lights are green and red, he comes to play. The King is averaging 26.7 points, 6.8 assists and 7.1 rebounds in those contests and his teams have gone 8-4 SU. Take that betting record with a grain of salt because the Cavs/Heat weren’t playing this caliber of an opponent and in the hostile environment of Oracle Arena, I fully expect the Lakers to fall short.
Warriors Have Let Spread-Bettors Down Lately
Favored to win the title for the fifth straight season, the Warriors seem to be on cruise control sometimes which can be very frustrating for Golden State backers. The Warriors are 8-2 SU over their last 10 games but only 4-6 ATS and have failed to cover in six of their last seven games.
The Dubs, when they’re feeling it, can beat any team in the NBA by 20 points as they’re third in the league in scoring and are fourth in three-point field goal percentage (38.4) while also ranking fourth in three-pointers allowed. Stephen Curry is having an incredible December by averaging 28.9 points, five rebounds and four assists and was the true difference-maker in Golden State's last game when he hit a last-second layup to seal the victory over the Clippers.
I’m likely staying away from the Warriors on the spread because of their inability to close out games recently and because their 2-5 ATS in seven Christmas Day games dating back to the 1993-1994 season. While that last trend should be taken lightly, it still doesn’t change the fact that this Warriors team can sometimes mail it in which is why I don’t feel comfortable backing them in this spot.
UNDER ALERT For Lakers Games
The total opened at 231.5 (since moved to 235) and the UNDER could be the profitable angle in this Western Conference showdown. The UNDER has hit in 13 of the Lakers last 18 games with an average combined score of 216.2 points per game. The UNDER has also been profitable for Christmas Day games over the last three seasons with the UNDER hitting in 10 of the 15 games.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. Both teams scare me to back them on the spread with their recent inconsistency and I think 235 points is too much to ask for. The Lakers defense has been much better as of late (107.3 points per game allowed in December) and the Warriors would need to drop more than 120 points for this OVER to hit.
