Two heavyweights in the Western Conference will take the court tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets duking it out but neither team seems to have hit the mark on their lofty preseason expectations. The Rockets were expected to contend for the title again but are an ugly 12-14 SU in 26 games while the Lakers are still trying to figure out how to adjust to life with LeBron and are 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS in 12 road games this season.
The Rockets opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 223.
- The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The Rockets are shooting 33.6 percent from three-point range on 41.7 attempts per game.
- The UNDER has hit in 10 of the Lakers’ last 12 games.
Rockets Continue to Live and Die by the Three
After winning over 60 games and being minutes away from dispatching the Warriors in the Western Conference final last year, the Rockets look like a team that has still not regained its identity at 12-14 SU in 26 games. They’re leading the NBA in three-point attempts, which is usually a winning formula in today’s game, but they’re only averaging 33.6 percent from deep, which ranks 25th in the league. They also rank 23rd in field-goal percentage and 24th in points in the paint.
In its most recent game against the Blazers, Houston started to resemble the team that took the Dubs to the distance, with quick decisions and James Harden getting a lot of scoring support from his teammates with seven players scoring in double figures. One of those players was Eric Gordon, who doesn’t seem right this season. Gordon was the unsung hero last season when he was shooting 35 percent from deep but his shooting has dipped down to 30 percent this year. The Rockets are fairly simple to figure out and for in-play bettors, if players like Gordon and Clint Capela are putting up points, they’re tough to stop.
I’m banking on guys like Gordon and Capela to continue to be cold tonight in this matchup and since the Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, I’m out on Houston tonight.
Lakers Are Coming Around for Spread Bettors
As predicted prior to the start of the season, the Lakers were an awful spread bet as they adjusted to playing with LeBron James. Through their first 20 games, they were 7-13 ATS. The ship has started to correct itself and now the Lakers are finally paying off by going 5-2 ATS in their last seven outings. To be fair, those games were against some inferior competition like the Mavericks, Suns and the Oladipo-less Pacers but a win is a win when it comes to the bankroll.
After being near the bottom of the league in points allowed per game for the first six weeks of the year, the defense has picked up and now the Lakers are ranked 17th in points allowed per game, which explains why they’ve been able to cobble together wins in six of their last seven games. Their perimeter defense will be put to the test against a Rockets squad that averages nearly 42 attempts from deep and the Lake Show have started to kibosh opponents from downtown, holding teams to 34 percent from three over the last 30 days.
I’m finally coming around on the Lakers and think they’re a great spread bet in this spot with the Rockets struggling and the Los Angeles defense clamping down on opponents. You won’t get the Lakers as an underdog much this season with so much public money coming in on LeBron.
UNDER Bettors Cashing in on Lakers Games
The total opened at 223 in this showdown and I like the UNDER because of how the Lakers’ defense has been playing lately and with the Rockets having difficulty nailing shots from deep. The UNDER has hit in 10 of the Lakers’ last 12 games with an average combined score of 211.8 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in the Rockets’ last four games with an average combined score of 207.
My Pick Is…
To take the Lakers to win and cover the spread. I’m back on the LeBron Train and think they are a top-three team in the Western Conference. The Rockets needed a herculean effort from James Harden and company to even beat the Blazers on Tuesday and I don’t think they can match up with the Lakers on the fast break.
