The Los Angeles Lakers wrap up their two-game road swing by making a stop at the Toyota Center to tip off against the Houston Rockets. This is the third meeting between these squads this season with Houston picking up victories in the previous two games, but Los Angeles enters tonight’s game on a two-game winning streak. However, it is the Rockets that are a seven-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 227 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Los Angeles’ last 16 games.
- Houston is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in its last eight games vs Los Angeles.
- Houston has scored the third-most points per game in their last 15. (118.5)
Los Angeles vs Houston Game Center
Lakers’ offense has slowed without LeBron
Los Angeles is entering its 13th straight game without its star offseason acquisition, LeBron James, after he injured his groin against Golden State on Christmas day. The Lakers have just hung around in the 12 games following King James’ injury, going 5-7 SU, but have found some success recently, picking up wins in four of their last six.
Without James, Los Angeles has scored more than 110 or more points just five times and more than 120 just twice and they are averaging 108.1 ppg ranking 22nd. Comparatively, they are scoring 111.9 ppg on the season. One thing has remained, though, and that is their high pace of play, which is the second-fastest behind only Oklahoma City over the last 12 games. The issue is they’re not hitting their shots, as they have a 44.4 shooting percentage from the floor over that span, despite taking the sixth-most shots.
On the defensive side of the ball, they have been fairly good, giving up just 110.2 points per game which rank in a tie for 11th-fewest in the NBA. However, Los Angeles is averaging 16.5 turnovers per game, leading to surrendering the second-most shot attempts against at 94.4 in the last 12 games. One bright spot for the defense has been its play from beyond the arc, limiting their opponents to a measly 33.2 shooting percentage from downtown which is the third-lowest percentage in the association.
Can anyone stop Harden?
Houston is without center Clint Capela and point guard Chris Paul. Capela was injured against Orlando last Sunday and Paul has been out since December 22 and the Rockets have been on a win-one, lose-streak since the start of January, a span of eight games. Tonight’s game concludes the Rockets’ three-game homestand and they are coming off a 145-142 loss to Brooklyn on Wednesday.
Despite the injuries, the Rockets have scored the third-most points per game in the league over their last 15 and that is solely due to the play of James Harden. The reigning MVP has been lighting the league on fire, scoring at least 30 points in 18 straight games, with 11 of those matches scoring 40 or more points. The majority of Houston’s offense comes from long range as it averages 49.2 three-point attempts per game over its last 15 – 10.2 more attempts than second-place Golden State.
Meanwhile, defensively Houston ranks in the middle of the pack, giving up an average of 112.5 points per game in its last 15 which puts it 16th. The biggest weakness has been its play around the rim, surrendering an average of 57.3 points in the paint per game, the most in the NBA over that span, and the Lakers score the third-most pitp at 55.5. Lastly, due to the number of three-pointers the Rockets attempt, they don’t do a great job at transitioning to defense after missed shots and are allowing a tie for the fourth-most fast-break points per game at 15.7.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
Los Angeles has been a very strong UNDER bet recently and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 227 points. Although the Lakers’ scoring has been down, they may have an opportunity to put up some points tonight as they do a lot of their damage in the paint and the Rockets have surrendered the most pitp over their last 15 games.
Additionally, Los Angeles does a good job defending the three-ball, where Houston gets the majority of its points, and that could lead to plenty of fast-break opportunities in which the Rockets give up the fourth-most points in. I think an OVER could come through tonight.
My take on Los Angeles vs Houston
I like Los Angeles +7. The Lakers’ ability to defend the three-ball could be a huge factor tonight as the Rockets take more threes than any other team in the association. Additionally, without Clint Capela in the lineup for Houston, that creates more opportunities to score in the paint and it was already struggling in that area defensively with him in the lineup and Los Angeles has scored the third-most pitp over the last 15 games.
Lastly, the Lakers’ defense has been playing fairly good recently, limiting their opponents’ scoring to just 110.2 over their last 12 games and I think they keep this game close enough to cover the 7 points.
