Cleveland’s favorite son LeBron James will return to Ohio for the first time in purple and gold when the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Cavaliers tonight. The Lakers have won seven of their last nine games and already knocked off Miami on this road trip in LeBron’s victory lap over his previous teams. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are showing how awful their roster is without James as they have the worst record in the NBA at 2-13 SU in 15 games.
The Lakers opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 222.
- The Cavaliers rank 27th in the NBA in points per game (103.3).
- The Lakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
- The UNDER has hit in 7 of the Cavaliers’ last 8 games (avg. combined score: 204.0).
Lakers vs Cavaliers Game Center
Cavs are the New Basement-Dweller of the NBA
I mean, we all knew LeBron James is what held the Cavaliers together but I don’t think anyone anticipated they would immediately drop to the bottom of the league standings. The Cavs are an ugly 2-13 SU in 15 games this season and their scoring has dropped to 27th in the league at 103.3 points per game, which is a steep drop since they ranked fifth in the league in that category last season.
Losing Kevin Love to a foot injury is obviously a huge loss and by default, Cleveland’s leading scorer is Jordan Clarkson at 15.5 points per game and he doesn’t even start. The Cavaliers are completely devoid of up-and-coming talent outside of Collin Sexton and will be in prime position to pick high again in next year’s NBA draft.
The Cavaliers spread may be enticing because of the emotional factor of LeBron’s return but this team is a dumpster fire. I can’t endorse them on the spread considering their average loss margin at home this season is 15.6 points per game and their only two home wins were against the Hawks and Hornets.
Lakers Having Trouble Covering when Tabbed As Fave
I’ve been very vocal about fading the Lakers on the spread in the first quarter of the season but I think this squad may have figured it out. L.A. has won seven of its last nine games but failed to cover in four of them as the Lakers allowed teams like Orlando, Atlanta and Minnesota to keep it close or win outright. So when I see they’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, it gives me pause … but then I realize they’re playing the Cavaliers.
The Lakers are the fourth-highest scoring team on the road this season at 115.1 points per game and are 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this matchup. LeBron has certainly picked up his game as the King has averaged 39 points per game over the last three while shooting 14-for-20 from three-point range. When he’s shooting like that, the Lakers are nearly unstoppable and since he has played at Quicken Loans Arena for 11 of his 15 years in the league, he’ll be very familiar with this environment. I expect the Lakers to cover the spread and win this game by 15 points or more.
Cavaliers’ Games Leading To A Lot of UNDERs
The total opened at 222 in this matchup and I expect the UNDER to come through for totals bettors. The UNDER has hit in seven of the Cavaliers’ last eight games with an average combined score of 204 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in seven of the Lakers’ last nine games with an average combined score of 220.5 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I was tempted to take the Lakers to cover the spread but this is their second-highest line of the season at 9 points and when they’ve been favored by 7 or more this year, they’re 0-2 ATS. I’d rather bank on the Cavaliers failing to score points since they rank so low this season and I think this game will fall short of the 222 total.
