Continuing their tour of Florida, the Los Angeles Lakers travel further south to face the Miami Heat tonight. The Lakers dropped the first game on the trip to Orlando and are 3-4 SU and ATS in seven road games this season. That loss has pushed the Lakers to 3-7 ATS in their last 10 and they're tied for the worst spread-record in the NBA at 5-10 ATS in 15 games. The Heat haven’t fared much better lately, losing seven of their last 10 games are 3-5 SU in eight home games this season.
Miami opened as a slight favorite in this matchup with a total of 228.
- The Lakers are 5-10 ATS in 15 games this season.
- The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of the Heat’s last 11 games.
Wagering on the Lakers’ Spread is a Frustrating Endeavour
At 5-10 ATS through 15 games, the Lakers start to the season is unfolding as I predicted. L.A. is tied for the worst spread-record in the NBA with the Washington Wizards and has found difficulty in finding the consistency and cohesiveness when you add a superstar like LeBron to the squad. The Lakers are allowing 116.6 points per game which ranks 28th in the NBA but to their credit, are averaging 116.9 on offense which is why despite their awful spread-record, they’re 8-7 SU.
Their most recent loss to the Magic is a wake-up call to Lakers’ backers that even though they have the best player on the floor, the defense is what matters. They allowed the Magic to score 130 points on them even though their season average is 106 points per game. The addition of Tyson Chandler was supposed to limit teams from scoring in the paint but the Lakers are letting teams score 50.2 points per game down low which is second-last in the NBA.
While I have been hard on the Lakers this season for how inconsistent their play has been, I’m actually going to back them tonight because I think they match up well with Miami and can exploit Goran Dragic and the Heat guards in the pick and roll.
The Heat Are Ice-Cold This Season
It’s hard to believe that the Heat have only won one playoff series since LeBron James left prior to the 2014 season. Miami has dealt with a lot of injuries this season as Dion Waiters and James Johnson have yet to play this year while Goran Dragic is nursing a knee injury and will be a game-time decision. Johnson reportedly is expected to be back for tonight’s matchup and will likely have to defend LeBron when he’s on the floor.
The Heat have lost seven of their last 10 games including four of their last five games at American Airlines Arena. Miami is having difficulty defending the three-point line as it ranks 28th in opponent three-point percentage (37.8) but is much better defensively in the paint with Hassan Whiteside roaming the middle. Whiteside is averaging 3.1 blocks per game and will be essential to the Heat’s winning formula if they plan to escape with the victory.
High Total? No Problem!
The total opened at 228 and while that may seem like a high figure to surpass, it may be a worthy wager based on the performances of these two teams. The OVER has hit in nine of the Heat’s last 11 games with an average combined score of 232 points per game. The OVER has also hit in seven of the Lakers’ last 10 games on the road dating back to last season.
My Pick Is…
To venture to the Dark Side and back the Lakers on the spread. I’ve been very vocal about fading the Lakers at any chance I get but the matchup favors Los Angeles and the spread is low so it’s essentially a pick-em. Since I think the Lakers’ roster is much better than the Heat’s, this is an easy decision.
