The Los Angeles Lakers will look to do something they haven’t done since 2015 and that’s win at the Target Center. The Lakers face the Timberwolves tonight and haven’t won in Minnesota since March 2015, dropping five straight. The T-Wolves, meanwhile, are coming off a brutal home loss to the Bucks but are 23-7 SU in their last 30 home games.
Minnesota opened as a slight 1-point favorite with a total of 237.5.
- The Lakers finished 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in four games last season vs the T-Wolves.
- The Lakers are ranked 29th in points allowed per game.
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of the Lakers’ last 12 games vs the Timberwolves.
Lakers vs Timberwolves Game Center
Timberwolves Have Owned This Matchup Recently
Although the drama and trade rumors swirl over the Timberwolves franchise this year, they fared well when they faced the Lakers last season. The T-Wolves went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four games last year in this matchup with an average win margin of 10.2 points per game.
Minnesota’s defense might be the only thing keeping the team in games right now as the Timberwolves rank third in the league in steals with 9.5 per game, 10th in forced turnovers (15 per game) and 11th in blocks (5.8). Jimmy Butler may be a top-20 player in the NBA but his last effort vs the Bucks left a bad taste in bettors’ mouths as he went 2-for-11 from the floor with four points in the 30-point loss.
I still like the Timberwolves to win tonight due to the low spread, playing at home and coming off two days’ rest compared to the Lakers’ one-day break between games.
Lakers’ Defense is a Work-in-Progress
I have been sounding the alarms about the lack of defense from the Lakers going into the season and it looks like that premonition is ringing true. The Lakers are allowing 122 points per game (ranked 29th) and allowing teams to shoot 48 percent from the field (ranked 25th). The return of Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo to the Lakers lineup should provide some added firepower but they may need to outscore teams in order to get the W.
LeBron James is up to his usual all-around brilliance by averaging 27.3 points, 8.3 assists and nine rebounds per game but he’s only averaging 20 percent from deep on 5.8 attempts per game. What may be the most incredible thing about this team is it has eight players who are averaging double-digit points but as mentioned they don’t stop anyone on the other side of the court. So, if you decide to back Los Angeles tonight, just know that it likely won’t be because they shut down the Timberwolves’ offense.
Bettors Should Lean to the UNDER
Although trends will point to an OVER in this matchup, if I’m betting the total, I’m leaning to the UNDER. The total opened at 237.5 and the average combined score in the last 12 games in this matchup is 224.5 with the total only surpassing 237 points in two of those games. The UNDER has also hit in five of the T-Wolves’ last six games with two days off between games.
My Pick Is…
To take the Timberwolves to cover the spread. I have been very vocal about fading LeBron and the Los Angeles Lakers for the first 20 games of the season due to how LeBron-led teams do against the spread in their first season and I don’t plan to stop now. I think the T-Wolves will be rested and will be looking to bounce back after getting clobbered by the Bucks at home.
