In one of the most anticipated debuts in NBA history, LeBron James will don the purple and gold for the first time in a regular-season game as the Los Angeles Lakers visit the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. LeBron will look to help a Lakers squad break a losing streak vs their divisional rival as Los Angeles has dropped 15 games in a row to the Blazers and failed to cover in eight of them. The Blazers opened as 3.5-point favorites to hand the Lake-Show its first loss of this young season with a total at 222.
- The Blazers are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs Lakers.
- The Lakers ranked 25th in points allowed per game last season.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the last 6 games in this matchup.
Lakers’ Defense Leaves A Lot to Be Desired
LA has a sense of excitement for the first time in a few years with LeBron’s arrival. The Lakers were a basement-dweller since Kobe Bryant’s departure and having arguably the best player in the world should put some butts in the seats but will it stop the opposition from scoring?
The Lakers were a bottom-five defensive team last season by allowing 109.6 points per game (ranked 25th) and while I think LeBron could help lower that by a few points, he hasn’t exactly been known as a defensive stopper at 34 years old like he was in his 20s. His Cleveland squads were ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game over each of the last two seasons.
While defense is something you’ll need to win championships, the exciting part about the Lakers is their new-look offense with King James playing point forward. The young guns of Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram could all average double-digit points this season and for a team that already ranked seventh in assists per game last year, they could jump up into the company of the Warriors in that category.
Blazers have Owned This Matchup
To say the Blazers have dominated the Lakers recently would be an understatement. Portland has the Lake-Show in its back pocket, winning 15 straight games vs Los Angeles dating back to April 2014. What’s more impressive about that run is the average win margin of 11.4 points per game and the Blazers covering in 12 of those contests.
The Trail Blazers are a tough team to beat at the Moda Center as they’ve won 20 of their last 25 games in Portland and are 16-7-2 ATS in that span. The backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum should give the Lakers fits on the perimeter so it will be interesting to see how LA matches up with them.
Another reason why I’m fading the Lakers is how LeBron’s “new” teams perform against the spread. When James went to Miami in 2010 and back to Cleveland in 2014, they were decent on the moneyline but a horrible bet against the spread in the Sportsbook 20 games of the season. For example, in the first 20 games of both of the Heat and Cavs’ seasons, those teams combined for an ATS record of 13-27 in that 40-game sample size.
Is Another UNDER in store?
The total opened at 222 in this divisional matchup and trends are pointing to an UNDER. Scoring seems to take a dip when these teams clash as the UNDER has hit in five of the last six games in this matchup with an average combined score of 199.5. The Lakers defense is expected to be improved and the Blazers only ranked 18th in points per game (106) at home last season so the UNDER should be a profitable angle.
My Pick is…
To fade the Lakers. I wrote a piece earlier this month about why I’ll be fading the Lakers for the first 20 games of the season due to how LeBron’s new squads perform against the spread. I also think the Blazers are underrated and will want to let the league know their sweep by the Pelicans was an anomaly.
