Although not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the season is all but over for the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lake Show looks to be going through the motions in this lost season and now has to face the Milwaukee Bucks, who own the best record in the NBA. The Lakers are 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS in 13 games since the all-star break and lost to the Bucks at home at the beginning of March.
The Bucks opened as 13-point faves with a total of 236.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Lakers’ defense has been atrocious since the all-star break. They’re yielding 116.4 points per game while allowing teams to shoot 47.8 percent (ranked 26th) from the field on 89.7 attempts (ranked 16th). As a result, they’ve gone 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS in 13 games. They’re also 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine games on the road.
- The Bucks have been juggernauts at home at 15-3 SU in their last 18 games. As a double-digit fave at home, they’re 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS in 15 games.
- The Bucks are 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS in 13 games since the all-star break. They’re the highest-scoring team in the NBA in that stretch (121.1 points per game) while hitting 46.5 percent from the field (ranked 11th) and averaging 14.7 three-pointers per game (ranked third). Their defense hasn’t been as strong as they allow opponents to shoot 36.3 percent behind the arc (ranked 22nd) on 32.5 attempts (ranked 14th).
- The UNDER has hit in eight of the Bucks’ last 11 home games, which have had an average combined score of 207.9 points per game.
My Best Bet for Lakers vs Bucks
UNDER 236.5
I heavily considered taking the Bucks to cover the spread at -13 but I despise taking double-digit favorites in the NBA. Although the Bucks have been one of the more reliable teams in that spot, it’s too risky considering there’s a huge chance this game goes UNDER due to both lineups being depleted.
The Lakers have had massive difficulty scoring the ball in most games since LeBron returned and he’s not even playing tonight. The Bucks will also be without Malcolm Brogdon and Sterling Brown. Factoring in the UNDER trend with Bucks home games, I’d rather take the least amount of risk and go with the UNDER and hope that the defenses don’t decide to treat this game like a pickup game at the YMCA.
