After a decisive home victory over the Houston Rockets, the Milwaukee Bucks will welcome another hot Western Conference team in the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The Clippers are an excellent 13-3 SU in 16 games since the all-star break and have covered the spread in 11 of those games. They’ll be put to the test against a Bucks squad that is tied for the best record at home this season at 31-6 SU in 37 games and owns a +13.3 point differential at Fiserv Forum.
The Bucks opened as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 232.5 (since moved to 234).
STANDOUT STATS
- The Clippers are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS in 16 games since the all-star break. They rank fourth in points scored per game (116.9) and third in three-point percentage (37.8) on 28.6 attempts per game since the break. Their defense has also ranked in the top 10 in opponent field-goal and three-point percentage in that span.
- The Clippers have gone 6-2 SU and ATS in eight road games since the all-star break and have held opponents to 31.2 percent shooting from three-point range (ranked second).
- The Bucks have been beasts at home this season at 31-6 SU and 23-13-1 ATS but they will be short-handed tonight with Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic and Tony Snell out. Since Brogdon got hurt, the Bucks have given up an average of 38.4 three-point attempts per game (ranked 28th).
- Since the all-star break, the Bucks are second in points scored per game (118.9) while ranking in the top five in field goals and three-pointers made per game. They also rank first in rebounding, second in blocks and eighth in turnovers.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bucks’ last five games (avg. combined score: 212.4) while the UNDER has also hit in five of the Clippers’ last seven games on the road (223.7). Both teams also rank in the bottom five in pace this season.
My Best Bet for Clippers vs Bucks
UNDER 234
I wanted to take the Bucks spread but I worry given how well the Clippers have been playing lately that I could get squeezed in the fourth quarter. That’s why I think the UNDER is the smart play here because I think both teams have done well defending the three-point shot and play at such a slow pace that points may be hard to come by.
The Bucks will be without two of their better shooters in Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic and that has led their games to be low-scoring too. I expect this game to fall short of the total with the Bucks winning outright.
