With LeBron James and Rajon Rondo still on the shelf and the Lakers fan base becoming increasingly disgruntled, Luke Walton and his group arrive in Oklahoma as 10.5-point underdogs to the Thunder. OKC has lost four of its last five games while the Lakers are coming off a seven-point win at home vs Chicago.
- OKC is 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games vs the Lakers.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Oklahoma City’s last six games when playing the LA Lakers.
- LA is 6-1 ATS and 7-0 O/U in its last seven games as a double-digit underdog.
Thunder Have Dominated This Matchup
Over the past five seasons, the Oklahoma City Thunder have completely dominated the matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers, compiling a 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS record in the last 16 meetings.
Tonight’s game marks the second of three head-to-head games this season after the Thunder came from behind to win 107-100 as a 5-point favorite on January 2.
When looking at totals in this matchup, the UNDER has cashed in five of the last six meetings, so the total of 226 set by the books for tonight is intriguing.
This is the Lakers’ First Game as a Double-Digit Underdog
LA is 5-9 ATS as an underdog this season and will be facing double digits for the first time since April 3 in Utah. In this spot, the Lakers have been very good recently, with a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven. Notably, each of those seven games hit the OVER.
For the Thunder, they are 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a double-digit favorite. They’ve been in this spot twice this month and are 0-2 SU and ATS in those games.
My Pick for Tonight
I like OVER 226 points. The Thunder have been scoring a ton of points this month (118.3 per game) while allowing even more (121.7 per game). This fits well into the style of play we’ve seen from the Lakers this season – very free-flowing on both ends of the floor. I think the combination of these styles should push the final number of points OVER this amount.
To further this argument, we’ve seen the total go OVER in four consecutive OKC games with an average combined score of 259.8. We have the third- and fourth-ranked teams in terms of pace in the NBA going head-to-head – I don’t think 226 points will contain them.
