After shocking the Celtics on their home floor with a barrage of three-point shots, the Los Angeles Lakers will look to get another win from a top team in the East when they face the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers rebounded at home with a nice win over the Nuggets on Friday and are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in 11 home games this season against Western opponents.
The Sixers opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 234.
- The Lakers are 3-1 SU ATS in four games since LeBron James returned from injury.
- The Sixers are ranked 22nd in points allowed in the paint this season (50.2).
- The UNDER has hit in the Sixers’ last five games (average combined score: 224).
Lakers’ Offense Has Completely Different Look with LeBron Back
To say the Lakers upset of the Celtics was a shock is kind of demeriting LA’s potential. The Lakers closed as nine-point underdogs and by halftime, the game had all the warning signs of a blowout. But in the third quarter, the Lakers shooting came to life and a double-digit deficit turned into a lead by the fourth quarter as LA shot 9 for 11 from three-point range.
That’s why counting out the Lakers on any court can be a risky endeavor as they’re one of the few teams with the gusto that can go into a hostile environment like TD Garden or Oracle Arena and steal an outright victory. In the three games LeBron has played since his return from a groin injury, he has notched 30 assists and his supporting cast of Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brandon Ingram have all shot over 40 percent from three.
Another reason why I think the Lakers can win is they’ll have more help in the likes of Reggie Bullock and Mike Muscala to give LeBron more weapons to pass to if Ingram or Kuzma are having an off-game. However, it’s worth noting that the Sixers are one of the better teams in defending the perimeter as Philly is holding teams to 32.9 percent over its last 10 games so the Lakers will have their work cut out for them.
Even with Embiid, Sixers Allowing Too Many Points in the Paint
Having the best center in the NBA (sorry Anthony Davis fans) should mean your team should dominate down low on both sides of the court but the Sixers are below-average in the restricted area. Philly allows over 50 points per game in this paint this season (ranked 22nd) while ranking a pedestrian 19th in the NBA at 47.9 points scored under the basket.
That scoring part to me is an eye-opener because they have Joel Embiid and a point guard in Ben Simmons, who is allergic to taking deep shots and mainly scores points on dribble-drives. This was apparent in both recent games to the Raptors and the Nuggets as they got outscored 124 to 84 in the painted area.
Obviously, the influx of all-star Tobias Harris should help to float all boats in Philadelphia because it adds another scorer to the Sixers roster and could put the Lakers‘ defense on their heels. Harris scored 14 points in his Sixers’ debut and his presence was a key component to knocking off a tough team like the Nuggets.
Philly Has Been Rewarding UNDER Bettors Recently
The total opened at 234 and although both of these teams are struggling defensively lately, the line may be too high for OVER bettors. The UNDER has hit in the Sixers last five games with an average combined score of 224 and the lines in each of those games was no lower than 230. Obviously, both of these teams have explosive players that could go off for a huge night but I’m banking on a tight game with limited possessions given the stakes and new players to adjust to in the lineup which could lead to dead possessions from turnovers.
My Pick Is...
To take the Lakers to cover the spread. I'm not convinced that a LeBron-led team can defend well enough to take the UNDER but I do think they can keep this game within seven points. I expect the LeBron money to come in as we get closer to tip-off so get on it now for the best value.
