If you’ve been solely betting the OVER on San Antonio Spurs games over the last three weeks, you’re enjoying quite a heater. The Spurs are 10-0-1 O/U in their last 11 games entering tonight’s game against the visiting Lakers – and yes, the O/U is 11-3 in the past 14 regular-season meetings of these teams. It’s no surprise, then, that the total opened at 226. The line is a pick’em.
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Lakers’ last 14 games vs the Spurs (avg. combined score: 240).
- The Spurs are 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13 games at home vs teams with winning records.
- The Lakers are 8-22 SU in their last 30 games vs the Spurs.
Eye-Popping Offensive Numbers
This will be the fourth meeting between these teams this season and the second at the AT&T Center. The average combined total in the first three games was 245 with the OVER hitting in two of the three games. The closing totals were 225.5, 232.5 and 225.0 and it was the game with the highest total that saw the UNDER hit.
So will we see the trend continue or are we due for a halt in offensive production? That’s always the question when it comes to betting totals and I’m going to delve into this a little further for us in this article to determine the best course of action.
Let’s Look at Games With Similar Totals
San Antonio is 3-2 O/U in games with closing totals of 225 or higher this season, including Wednesday’s game vs the Lakers at Staples Center. The average combined score in those games was 240.6. The teams got over the total of 225 on Wednesday by nine points, finishing with a combined 234.
The Lakers, meanwhile, have played a plethora of games with high closing totals this season and have compiled a 5-7-1 O/U record in 13 games with a closing total of 225 or more. The average combined score in those games was 231.1.
My Best Bet for Tonight
I’m comfortable betting OVER 226 points for this game. Not only have the teams proven that they can reach this total against each other, but they’ve gotten there against other opponents as well. It can be intimidating betting OVER such a high total but it’s a fair bet based on the information available.
Brandon Ingram is out, so that’s definitely worth taking into consideration. However, in the five games he’s missed this year, the Lakers are 3-1-1 O/U including a 285-point game vs San Antonio on October 22 and the 234-point game on Wednesday when Ingram contributed five points in five minutes before the injury.
