Losers of four of their last five games, it doesn’t get any easier for the Memphis Grizzlies as they head to Oakland to face the Golden State Warriors. The Grizz have dropped seven of their last eight games at Oracle Arena and are 3-3 SU in their last six games on the road. The Warriors may have one of the best home records in the NBA at 12-3 SU in 15 games but they have failed to cover in six of their last seven games in the Bay.
The Warriors opened as 11.5-point favorites with a total of 210.
- The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
- The Grizzlies are second in the NBA in points allowed per game (102.1).
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Grizzlies’ last 6 games on the road.
Grizzlies vs Warriors Game Center
Warriors Letting Spread Bettors Down as Home Faves
There isn’t much debate about who is the favorite to win the NBA title but the Warriors are making it very hard for bettors to trust them to cover the spread lately. The Dubs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as home faves. For what it’s worth, Golden State is 28-0 SU in its last 28 games as a double-digit home favorite so if you have a huge bankroll and want to make minimal profit, the Warriors moneyline is right up your alley at -675.
Jokes aside, for the wealth of talent the Warriors have, it’s troubling when they allow bottom-feeder teams to keep it close even though Golden State is in complete control of the game. We saw this when the Dubs hosted Atlanta and Brooklyn earlier in November when they were favored by double digits and only won by seven points each time.
I don’t need to expand on why the Warriors are good or why they should easily win and cover in this spot due to their wealth of talent, but there seems to be something off with them right now that hasn’t felt right since the Durant-Green blowup. As 11.5-point favorites, I’m leaning toward fading them tonight.
Grizzlies’ Defense Keeping Them In Games
At 16-13 SU in 29 games, the Grizzlies are much better than they were last year mainly because of the health of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. Conley and Gasol are combining for 36.7 points per game and have started every game this season – last season they combined to miss 80 games.
Outside of those two, the talent gap on the roster is huge as their next best player is rookie Jaren Jackson Jr., who is still trying to find his game and figure out NBA defenses. That’s why this team has put such an emphasis on its defensive efforts and it’s translated to them being the second-best scoring defense in the league at 102.1 points per game.
There may be a lot of trends to support a Grizzlies fade pick but I actually like them in this spot as 11.5-point underdogs as they’ve covered the spread in six of their last 10 games when dogs of 11 points or more and their defense is decent enough that it can at least make the Warriors work for their three-point attempts.
Grizz Road Games Leading to OVERs
The total opened at 211 (since moved to 210) and I like the OVER mainly because the Warriors are involved and the OVER has hit in four of the Grizzlies’ last six road games with an average combined score of 216.6 points per game. The Warriors are averaging 116.1 points per game this season (ranked third) and give up over 111 points per game, so by default the UNDER seems too risky.
My Pick Is…
To take the Grizzlies to cover the spread. This is just too many points to give the Warriors considering how stout the Grizzlies’ defense is and Golden State’s tendency to play down to its competition.
