Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Odds & Picks: Can Wolves Hold On To A Late Lead?

Despite holding fourth-quarter leads in four of the five games in this series, Minnesota (49-39 SU, 47-40-1 ATS) finds itself down 3-2 to Memphis (59-28, 54-32-1). The Grizzlies opened as 2-point road favorites to close out the Timberwolves and advance to Round 2.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Odds & Analysis

Sportsbook Odds 

Oddsmakers haven’t made much of an adjustment to the point spread, favoring the Grizzlies by the same number of points as they laid in the series’ first two games in Minnesota. However, the books lowered the total for the fourth straight time, Sportsbook it at a series-low 229 after three of the last four games went UNDER by 11 points or more.

Get the best Grizzlies vs Timberwolves odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.

Memphis Shooting Poorly But Capitalizing On Extra Opportunities

Second-chance opportunities helped the Grizzlies overcome an awful shooting performance to win Game 5. Memphis made just three three-pointers in the first three quarters and hit only 41 percent of its shots from the field, but made up for it by pulling down 18 offensive rebounds and forcing 23 turnovers.

Ja Morant then turned it on down the stretch, scoring Memphis’ final 13 points, including the game-winning layup in the dying seconds. The Grizzlies’ late run came with a small lineup of Morant, Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke and Desmond Bane on the floor after Jaren Jackson Jr. fouled out, so it’ll be interesting to see if Memphis gives that combination some more time together in Game 6.

One thing’s for certain about the Grizzlies’ rotation tonight — Steven Adams won’t be in it. The veteran center entered COVID-19 health and safety protocols on Thursday and is out indefinitely, although his absence might not have a big impact on Memphis tonight. Adams has seen less than four minutes of playing time in the last three games combined after starting the first two games of the series.

Poor Fourth Quarters Have Been A Season-Long Issue For Young Timberwolves

If the Timberwolves were able to hold on to big fourth-quarter leads in this series, they’d already have advanced to the second round. The Wolves were up by 13 points with less than 10 minutes left in Game 5 before Memphis rallied to win, putting Minnesota in a must-win position tonight rather than having an opportunity to close things out at home.

Through five games of this series, the T-Wolves have been outscored by an average of nine points in the fourth quarter, so a live bet on Memphis in the fourth tonight could be a profitable Grizzlies vs Timberwolves prediction. “It’s a battle we’ve been fighting all year,” coach Chris Finch admitted to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune about the Wolves’ fourth-quarter issues.

At least Minnesota has proven it can bounce back from demoralizing losses already in this series. The Wolves squandered a 26-point advantage in a Game 3 loss at home, then pulled out a 119-118 victory two days later.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Pick & Insights

Grizzlies: Keys To Cover

With several Grizzlies struggling with their shots right now, Memphis’ defense could determine whether they finish off the Timberwolves tonight or the series returns to Tennessee for Game 7. The Grizz are 3-0 SU in this series when they’ve held Minny under 110 points, and 0-2 SU when they haven’t.

Timberwolves: Keys To Cover

Minnesota has to stay composed and not panic with its season on the line, especially in the fourth quarter when the Wolves have shown a tendency to tighten up. Taking better care of the ball would help a lot as the T-Wolves were outscored 12-0 on second-chance opportunities in the fourth quarter of Game 5.

Odds Shark’s Computer Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Prediction: Memphis -1.5

Check out more of Odds Shark’s signature NBA computer picks, plus our favorite sportsbooks that serve basketball customers. 

See Odds Shark’s Best NBA Betting Sites